Grayscale Research Predicts Bitcoin Price Has Bottomed for Early Bull Market

Bitcoin price has already formed a durable market bottom to set the stage for the early bull market phase, as per Grayscale Research head and former Goldman Sachs macro strategist. On-chain data flashes bullish signals for further upside momentum.

BTC hits a 3-month high of $78,417 today as oil prices slip back under $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire.

Bitcoin Price Bottomed in $65,000-$70,000 Range: Grayscale Research

In a new The Stack article, Grayscale Research head of research Zach Pandl highlighted on-chain data showing recent buyers are returning to breakeven after more than 20% rally from February lows around $63,000.

The realized price for BTC moved over the past 1-3 months is currently near $74,000, indicating short-term holders are no longer in the red. Grayscale Research head asserts it signals easing sell pressure and a shift in investor sentiment, confirming a bottom in the $65,000-$70,000 range.

While Bitcoin price remains well below its October 2025 peak, the recent upside momentum aligns with patterns seen at the start of prior bull market phases.

“If Bitcoin price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,” Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl predicted.

Key Bull Market Index Turns Neutral for First Time in Bear Market: CryptoQuant

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, echoed the bullish sentiment, noting the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has entered the neutral zone for the first time in this bear market.

However, he cautioned that the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week in March 2022. After a week, Bitcoin price resumed its decline. However, the current bullish sentiment comes amid broader signs of stabilization.

Meanwhile, 10x Research highlighted a key divergence as negative funding rates and subdued volumes had kept the bear case alive, but April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows signal bullishness.

Investor accumulation is appearing earlier in the cycle than in the previous two recoveries. “Although it appears that MicroStrategy is the only institution buyer, that is no longer the case. The on-chain evidence is unambiguous on this point,” it added.

Moreover, Bitcoin price recovery is happening amid rising US Federal Reserve liquidity. BTC broke above top analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance band on the weekly chart. It’s a key technical level that has historically marked important shifts.

Here is the US Feds total assets.

Note: There was no Bitcoin centric crash and bear market. There was a US liquidity drain and QE was restarted. Bitcoin followed US liquidity. So does every asset. https://t.co/bcXhFM9mjy pic.twitter.com/mxAROmZdQH

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) April 22, 2026

Bitcoin Price Rises as Trump Extends US-Iran Ceasefire

Bitcoin price jumped nearly 3% today, currently trading at $77,990. The 24-hour low and high are $74,852 and $78,417, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by 14% in the last 24 hours, indicating a rise in interest among traders. As CoinGape Markets reported earlier, Bitcoin is expected to hit the 100-day SMA at $87,735.

This happened as President Donald Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire. He claims the US will hold off on its planned attack on Iran to allow time for its leaders to present a proposal.

He added that the U.S. Navy will continue the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Oil prices fell below $90 per barrel as the ceasefire was extended.

CoinGlass data showed massive buying in the derivatives market, triggering Bitcoin price recovery. At the time of writing, the total BTC futures open interest jumped nearly 6% to $59.53 billion in the last 24 hours. The 4-hour BTC futures OI climbed 5%, soaring by almost 1% jump on CME and 6% on Binance. This signals bullish sentiment among derivatives traders.

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