Analyst Predicts Just 1 Chance for SpaceX to Recover

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price dropped by 16% on June 22, to close trading at $154, but Keybanc analysts have now revealed the one chance that these shares have to recover.

SPCX stock is still up by 14% from the June 12 IPO price of $135, but the bond issuance that was announced on June 22 has raised fresh concerns about the company being overvalued.

SpaceX Stock Price Crashes After First Bond Issuance

SpaceX is looking to raise more money from the bond market nine days after raising $85 billion in a historic IPO, but this issuance seems to have spooked investors as the shares recorded their third straight day of losses.

Issuing these bonds will add to SpaceX’s current cash reserve of $100 billion. It will also avoid any dilution that would have happened if the company chose to issue more shares.

However, the bond issuance seems to have increased the sell-side pressure around SPCX, and the price recorded its biggest single-day loss since the IPO that happened on July 12.

The 16% drop in price seen on June 22 has seen SpaceX shed $400 billion in market cap within a day, and the net worth of CEO Elon Musk has also dropped by $350 billion.

Analyst Reveals One Reason Why SpaceX Could Recover

Wall Street analysts at Keybanc have revealed that Starlink is the one chance that SpaceX has to recover.

Starlink accounted for 61% of the $18.7 billion in revenue recorded by SpaceX in 2025, and Keybanc now says that if Starlink connectivity grows, it can limit the downside around the SPCX stock price.

“At sufficient scale, Connectivity alone is capable of supporting a meaningful portion of enterprise value… and allows the remaining segments (AI, Space) to be valued more,” the analysts said.

The analysts also note that the AI segment spearheaded by xAI could also drive the long-term gains for SPCX because of the $1.25 billion deal between SpaceX and Anthropic and another $920 million monthly deal with Google.

These deals could increase the revenue coming from the AI sector to $50.6 billion by 2027, per the analysts.

The upside being seen with Starlink and xAI could be the reason why Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest scooped 210,121 SPCX shares even as the stock dropped.

SPCX Stock Technical Analysis After 16% Crash

The psychological support price for the SpaceX stock is at $150, which is the price that the stock started trading at on NASDAQ on June 15.

A drop below this psychological support of $150 could push SPCX to the official IPO price of $135, especially if the selling pressure remains as strong as it is now.

The ADX line that is rising suggests that the ongoing drop might continue, and SPCX might test this psychological support level of $150.

However, the RSI reading of 20 suggests that sellers are near the point of exhaustion, and this might create space for buyers to come back and support a relief gain.

SpaceX stock could stall near $150 if the sell-side pressure eases, but if buyers also come back, it might rise to test the 23.6% Fib level of $167.

There is also an obstacle at the 61.8% Fib level of $196 that might pave the way for a stronger recovery past the psychological resistance of $200.