2 Reasons SpaceX Stock Price is Falling Ahead of August 4 Earnings

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price is down by 32% in the last month since July 2, 2026. On August 3, SPCX stock price reached an all-time low of $107, with the drop coming one day before SpaceX reports its Q2 2026 earnings on August 4.

This drop comes despite a Bloomberg consensus forecasting $6.87 billion in revenue for SpaceX in Q2 2026, with this being an increase from the $4.7 billion in Q1 2026.

Key Reasons Why SpaceX Stock Price is Dropping

The fall of SPCX shares to an all-time low is likely because of two reasons: the upcoming unlock of 911.5 million shares and a bearish sentiment around AI stocks.

Looming 911.5M Share Unlock is Weighing on Price

911.5 million SpaceX shares will become available for selling on August 6. These shares belong to company insiders and early investors who have been unable to sell SpaceX shares since the IPO occurred on June 12.

Analyst Walter notes that these unlocks will increase the selling pressure on SpaceX stock. He adds that this will be the beginning of more shares flooding the market because the number of outstanding shares will rise from 5% in June 2026 to 40% ion December 2026.

It is because of the possibility that 911.5 million shares could be sold in August 2026 that short sellers have made more than $20 billion in unrealized profits so far, with SPCX being the most shorted stock in the world.

Still, analyst Johnston defies the possibility of the stock dropping, saying that shorts will want to close their positions once the unlock occurs, and this could increase buy-side pressure.

Bearish Sentiment Around AI Stocks

JPMorgan analyst Michael Cembalest has said that he is “cautious” about the US equity markets because semiconductor stocks are rising while hyperscalers are dropping, in a trend that closely mirrors what occurred in the 1999 to 2000 dotcom era.

“The worrisome part of a boom cycle is when companies closest to final demand roll over, even as capital spending beneficiaries of the cycle keep on thriving,” Cembalest said.

Cembalest’s bearish outlook around AI stocks comes as the odds of the AI bubble bursting rise.

SpaceX is considered to be an AI stock because of its xAI division, and if the warning by the JPMorgan analyst causes more people to abandon the AI trade for other sectors, it could also be pulling the SpaceX stock price down.

SpaceX Stock Prediction Ahead of Earnings

SPCX stock is up by 2.64% today, August 3, to trade at $11. This is a slight gain from the all-time low of $107 that the shares touched briefly during the morning trading session.

If these gains continue, SpaceX stock price could create its biggest green daily candle since July 28.

The RSI line that is rising suggests that the bearish trend is losing strength ahead of the release of the company’s earnings on August 4. Still, the RSI reading of 49 is close to neutral, suggesting that bulls have yet to tighten their grip.

If the gains continue, SPCX stock price could move to the psychological resistance of $120. Still, a move above the IPO price of $135 is necessary to shift the trend to a bullish one because it is at this point that the retail traders who purchase SPCX ahead of the IPO will become profitable.

But if the upcoming earnings do not meet the $6.87 billion in revenue that Wall Street expects. SpaceX shares could move lower to the psychological support of $100.