Cardano Price Forecast as DeFi TVL and CME Volumes Soar Despite $20M SecondFi Hack

Cardano (ADA) price has dropped to its lowest level in six years of $0.14 amid selling pressure in the broader crypto market, and a recent hack that drained $20 million from the SecondFi protocol based on Cardano.

But this drop has not affected Cardano’s DeFi TVL that has increased by 17 million ADA, and ADA’s CME volumes have also reached the highest level since May 27 at 24.7 million contracts.

Cardano DeFi TVL Spikes Despite SecondFi Hack

Data from DeFiLlama shows that the Cardano DeFi TVL increased from 523.64 million ADA on June 19 to 586 million ADA on June 26.

The TVL is rising despite SecondFi, a protocol that is created on Cardano, reporting that its users lost $20 milliion in an exploit that occurred on June 24.

Such exploits usually make the TVL and price drop as people rush to withdraw funds from the protocol, but this has not been the case with Cardano.

The founder of Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, has also reacted to the hacking incident through an X post, saying that he is working on a way to help people who are affected by similar hacks.

“I’ve begun experimenting how to develop a recovery smart contract that can vend out from a pool of Ada and CNTs using a zero-knowledge proof,” Hoskinson said.

But the hack not only failed to dent the TVL but also the stablecoin supply that has increased from $46 million on June 13 to $53 million on June 26.

Cardano CME Volumes and Open Interest Spike

Data from the CME shows that volumes for ADA futures rose from 1.7 million ADA contracts on June 23 to 24.5 million ADA contracts on June 24, even as the price dropped.

The open interest for ADA futures on the CME has also increased to 27.4 million on June 24 and then dropped slightly to 27.2 million ADA contracts on June 25.

The rising futures activity follows a previous Coingape Cardano price analysis that observed funding rates dropped to -12.65% as many short sellers increased their bets that ADA is going to keep falling.

Data from Coinglass shows that Cardano’s funding rate is still negative today, June 26, suggesting that short sellers remain unconvinced that the fall to the lowest price in six years has created ADA’s bottom.

Cardano Price Confirms a Death Cross as Price Tests 2020 Lows

Cardano has created a death cross on the one-day chart after the 50-day SMA moved below the 200-day SMA to suggest that the long-term Cardano price outlook is now favoring bears.

The last time that ADA price created a death cross was in December 2022, and that crossover signalled a bottom for the price, because Cardano later moved from $0.23 to $0.42 seven weeks after the cross appeared.

The RSI reading of 27 also suggests that the sellers might be near exhaustion. However, ADA needs to make three straight closes above $0.15 to signal the beginning of an uptrend.

Cardano price also needs to move above the 50-day SMA level of $0.46 to confirm that bulls have a good grip.