Peter Schiff Flags US Inflation Risk As Oil Price Soars To $100 Ahead July Fed Decision

Economist Peter Schiff cautioned that once again, a surge in oil prices could undermine the recent progress in the US inflation trend. His cautionary remarks come as as energy markets grappling with another supply issue as Iran has imposed blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia oil routes.

Peter Schiff Eyes Oil Price Surge To Drive July CPI Inflation Higher

The June CPI drop was driven primarily by a drop in oil prices, Schiff said. The recent rally in crude prices could drive inflation up in July, he warned.

“Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline. But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel,” Peter Schiff wrote on X.

“If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy!” he added.

He also addressed concerns of oil prices rebound leading to ongoing inflation or just a one-off supply shock. “No, it’s just that the only reason June CPI fell so much was the 30% drop in oil. That will likely be completely reversed by an even bigger rise in the price of oil in July,” Schiff replied.

Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline. But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel. If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy!

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 23, 2026

The U.S. inflation data released last week indicated a huge decline in June. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell back to 3.5% (YoY) in June.

This was below the market expectations of 3.8%. CPI fell 0.4%, versus an estimated 0.1% drop expected by economists month-on-month.

Oil Prices Surpass $100 For First Time Since May

Within just hours of Peter Schiff’s comments, oil prices jumped to $100 per barrel. This was the first time since May that crude has reached this level.

Brent crude, the world benchmark, rose over 6% on Thursday after gaining over the past few days. As American military attacks against Iran grew, so did the prices. The price of crude oil has increased by 30.88% in the last month.

The rally came in response to attacks by Houthis militants on oil tankers in the Red Sea port of Yemen. The strikes added to worries about global energy supplies. Saudi Arabia has employed the track to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on some oil convoys.

The price of natural gas has also risen. The average gas price in the UK is in the region of 150p per therm. Towards the end of June it reached almost 98p.

The oil price had been falling earlier due to a temporary cease-fire between the US and Iran. The prices have moved back to pre-U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran level on Feb. 28.

However, the ceasefire has now ended. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that Iran’s leadership was “not ready to make a deal.

The FOMC Meeting In Focus

Since oil and energy prices have gone up, some markets are now focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next. While the central bank has previously noted that oil prices have been a drag on inflation, a continued rally could begin to slow down inflation progress and affect the central bank’s decision on rates.

Now, the focus is on the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. CME FedWatch Tool data gave a 62.1% chance of the Fed keeping its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75.

However, the latest U.S. jobs data is also weighing on the market amid the US-Iran war. The data release has pushed traders to also price in a 37.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.

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