Can NVIDIA Overtake Apple by Year-End? Dexsport Gives It a 9% Chance

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 93% while Yes trades at 7%.
• This market has recorded $2.1M in trading volume, with $17.2K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $129.6K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

NVIDIA needs roughly a 32% gain to catch a flat Apple. Colette Kress gets her first chance to close some of that gap when NVIDIA reports on Tuesday.

NVIDIA closed Friday at $162.85 after losing almost 13% over the week. The sell-off left the chipmaker worth about $3.92 trillion, against Apple’s $5.18 trillion. If Apple stays where it is, NVIDIA needs to climb to roughly $215 a share to draw level, assuming share counts hold steady. A week earlier, an 11% gain would have closed the gap.

Dexsport’s year-end ranking market showed NVIDIA at 9% on November 14, with Yes offered at 9¢. Apple was at 90%, with Yes offered at 89.6¢. The event showed about $853,000 in reported volume across its outcomes. The contract settles on which company has the world’s largest market cap at the December 31 close, so any lead NVIDIA takes before then has to hold through that final session.

What Kress needs to show on Tuesday

Colette Kress took over as interim CEO after the board accepted Jensen Huang’s resignation. She’ll have her first earnings call in the role on November 17. NVIDIA guided to $108 billion in revenue in August, and analysts polled by LSEG now expect about $109 billion. A print of $109 billion would still be within the range NVIDIA gave three months ago.

The better test is what Kress says about the January quarter. Data centres accounted for $89 billion of NVIDIA’s $96.2 billion in revenue last time. In August, the company said its Vera Rubin systems were going into full production and racks were already running at cloud providers. 

Now the question is how many systems NVIDIA can deliver and book as revenue this quarter. If Kress gives investors firmer delivery dates and raises expectations for January, there’s room for a rebound. Reuters reported on Thursday that NVIDIA traded at around 12 times expected earnings, its lowest multiple since 2012.

Some buyers already stepped in. Retail investors bought a net $111 million of NVIDIA shares in the first half-hour of Thursday trading, according to Vanda. The stock still finished lower on Thursday and Friday.

NVIDIA rose 8.7% the day after its August earnings. The same move from Friday’s close would take it to about $177. With Apple flat, NVIDIA would still need another 22% from there. Kress could give the stock a day as good as the last earnings rally and still leave Apple well clear at the top.

There’s another test for the AI trade two days later. Anthropic shares are expected to start trading on Thursday, with its IPO targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion. A weak debut could take some of the momentum out of an earnings rally if it revives doubts about what investors are willing to pay for AI growth.

Apple has a holiday quarter to get through

If Apple falls 10% from Friday’s valuation, NVIDIA would need about 19% to catch it. Apple expects holiday-quarter revenue to grow 7% to 10%, helped by a new iPhone lineup. It has also guided to a gross margin of 45% to 46%, down from 47.9% in September. 

Management flagged higher memory costs and said supplies of the new foldable iPhone Duo were tight. If those shortages push some holiday purchases into January, Apple could give back some of its lead before it reports again.

Microsoft is close enough to complicate that scenario. At roughly $3.89 trillion on Friday, it was just behind NVIDIA. An Apple sell-off could give Microsoft a way back into the race too. Apple deserves to be the clear favourite. 

The first number I’d check after NVIDIA reports is the gap at Wednesday’s close. If it’s still near $1 trillion after a good earnings reaction, NVIDIA will need another big move before December 31.