3 Key Events to Watch in Bitcoin Price This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down 0.39% today, June 29, to trade at $59,710 at the time of writing. This slight drop comes as BTC faces a volatile week ahead, as three key events: Fed Chair’s speech, US jobs data, and Congress’s July recess, occur.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Deliver a Speech on July 1

The freshly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will speak at the annual symposium for the European Central Bank on July 1 in Portugal, where he is expected to give hints on whether the Fed will raise or trim interest rates in 2026.

This symposium will be the first global stage that Warsh speaks at since he took over as the head of the Federal Reserve in May.

It also comes three weeks after the last FOMC meeting on June 17, where Warsh said that inflation was still too high at 4.2% and it needs to drop to the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. That speech at the June FOMC meeting led to Bitcoin price dropping to $59,000.

What Warsh will say at the Portugal symposium could affect the odds of whether the Fed will increase interest rates in 2026 to bring inflation down to 2%, and data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that 61% of investors already expect the Fed to raise rates in September.

US Jobs Data in Focus as Rising Dollar Index Weighs on Bitcoin Price

The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims numbers on July 2, and investors expect the claims to increase from the 215,000 reported on June 25 to 221,000.

Rising claims would suggest that more layoffs happened this week, which might move the Fed to reconsider its stance on rising interest rates.

But the fact that 61% of investors on the CME FedWatch Tool are still expecting the Fed to increase the US interest rates in September suggests that they believe the Fed will rely more on the rising inflation and not the jobs data to make a decision regarding interest rates.

The dollar index that has risen to 101, also shows that the market is ignoring the rising jobless claims, because the dollar usually weakens when there are more layoffs.

The DXY reached 101.51 on June 24 for the first time since May 2025. At press time, this index stood at 100.

The rising DXY is bearish for Bitcoin price because when the dollar is strong, investors prefer to hold it instead of risky assets like BTC.

Senate Breaks for July 4 Recess as CLARITY Act Passage Odds Fall

The US Congress will go on recess on July 4, and this break might affect the price of Bitcoin depending on whether the Senators will make any progress with CLARITY Act before that date.

CoinGape reported that Senator Cynthia Lummis said the final text for this bill comes out on July 4. If that text shows that compromises have been reached on issues like the stablecoin yield and ethics, BTC price might rise because that will mean the bill might pass after Congress resumes session.

But if that text shows that banks are still pushing against this bill, Bitcoin price might drop because that might suggest CLARITY might not pass before the mid-term elections happen in November.

Data from Kalshi shows that there is only a 41% chance that this bill is going to pass in 2026.

Bitcoin Price Outlook For This Week as Bulls Defend a Key Support Level

The support level for Bitcoin price stands at $59,559, and bulls have defended it for five straight trading days since June 24.

BTC price might drop to $58,115 if it loses this support level of $59,559. The last time that BTC tested this $58,000 level was on June 25, when a lot of liquidations occurred, and a lot of long buyers were forced to sell to close their positions.

But if this support level of $59,559 holds and BTC makes three straight closes above it, that might confirm the creation of a double-bottom pattern that usually precedes a bullish long-term Bitcoin price forecast.

Bitcoin’s upwards journey, if the bullish bottom pattern plays out, will face the first obstacle at $62,900. Making three straight closes above this resistance might see the price make another upwards move to the June 15 high of $67,290.

The AO bars that have turned green despite being negative also suggest that bears are losing their grip, and this makes it likely for Bitcoin to remain above $59,559.