Cardano Price Prediction Ahead of June 23 Leios Testnet Launch

Cardano (ADA) price has made three green candles for the last three straight days as it bounces from a six-year low of $0.148 to trade at $0.167 today, June 9. The 12% rise seen since June 6 comes barely two weeks before Cardano releases the public testnet for the Leios upgrade on June 23, an event that could increase buying pressure and push ADA price higher.

While Leios, just like with any other network upgrades, is expected to bring more gains for Cardano price, activity on the network is at record lows, raising the question of whether or not Leios will be a bullish catalyst.

Cardano Leios Testnet Nears Launch

Leios will be one of the biggest upgrades to ever happen in Cardano because of its focus on scaling the network so it can handle around 27 million transactions per month, a 33 times increase from the 800,000 transactions that Cardano handles presently.

The Cardano community voted on May 25 to go ahead with the Leios rollout that is also expected to bring more applications related to DeFi and RWA to Cardano. This is a much-needed outcome because two projects on Cardano: TapTools and JPG Store, closed down between May 27 and June 3.

The public testnet that will go live on June 23 will allow external developers to check whether or not Leios will deliver on its promise of making Cardano faster and scalable. If it does, Cardano price will likely rise as people start buying ahead of the mainnet rollout.

The Cardano Foundation expects that this last phase of bringing Leios to the mainnet will happen between October and December 2026.

Where Will Cardano Price Go Ahead of Leios Testnet Launch?

A recent CoinGape Cardano price analysis suggested that Cardano price reached a bottom at $0.148 when it fell to its lowest in six years, just as a death cross appeared.

The four-hour chart shows a healthy bounce from this bottom range, with the price rising by 12% between June 6 and June 9. This bounce has created a rounding bottom pattern that suggests the journey north might be just beginning.

The rounding bottom shows an obstacle at $0.174 that ADA has attempted to overcome three times without success.

If the broader market continues to show signs of recovery and buying pressure towards Cardano rises, the price might overcome this obstacle at $0.17 ahead of the June 23 Leios testnet launch.

A move above the obstacle at $0.17 will complete this round bottom pattern and likely fuel a 14.6% rise to $0.195 that is equal to the depth of this pattern.

The RSI reading of 46 shows bears still have the upper hand. However, the RSI line has been tipping north since bouncing from oversold levels at 12, suggesting selling pressure is easing, and if buyers fill the void that sellers are leaving, ADA price might breach the obstacle at $0.17.

Therefore, the most likely target for Cardano price ahead of the Leios testnet launch on June 23 is $0.195 if the rounded bottom plays out.

Weak Network Activity May Cap Upside

In as much as the Leios upgrade may cause gains for ADA due to increased buying pressure, the rise might not last. This is because the long-term Cardano price outlook remains bearish because of weak activity on the network.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that DeFi TVL for Cardano has dropped from 593.93 million ADA on June 4 to 552.01 million on June 9, which means that 41.92 million ADA has been unlocked in just five days.

These unlocked tokens are likely going to exchanges, where they will likely contribute to the sell-side pressure and pull Cardano price lower.

The dropping TVL also casts a bearish light on Cardano because smart money or whales might shy away, which will weaken demand and make gains less likely to occur.

DEX volume numbers on Cardano have also fallen from $10.77 million on June 5 to $2.43 million on June 9, per DeFiLlama, while the stablecoin supply has dropped from $54 million to $46 million.

Therefore, even if the Leios testnet is a bullish catalyst for Cardano price, it can only play out for a small period of time before retail buyers reach a point of exhaustion and start selling if network activity remains weak.