Ethereum Price Forecast as $300M ETH Exits Exchanges Despite Rate Hike Fears

Ethereum (ETH) price is down slightly by 0.23% to trade at $2,495 at the time of writing. The drop comes amid fears that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates next week. Still, the potential rate hike has not caused a surge in selling pressure because on-chain data shows that traders are withdrawing their coins from exchanges.

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Ethereum Exchange Outflows Surge

In a recent post on X, analyst Ali Martinez noted that traders withdrew 116,000 ETH from exchanges between September 6 and September 7. These coins are worth more than $300 million.

The withdrawals suggest that most traders are not willing to sell Ethereum now despite geopolitical tensions and the possibility of the Fed making a hawkish monetary policy decision at the September 16 FOMC meeting.

Martinez also opines that if the supply of Ethereum on exchanges continues to shrink, ETH price could make a major move to the upside.

Data from CoinGlass supports the bullish thesis that the supply of ETH is shrinking because the exchange balance has dropped to 11.92 million, with this being the lowest reading since August 31.

The ongoing transfer of ETH from exchanges also coincides with rising demand for Ethereum ETFs, with data from SoSovalue showing that ETH ETFs have seen three straight weeks of inflows. The inflows have already reached $130 million so far in September 2026.

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Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge Ahead of CPI Data

Data from CoinGape prediction markets shows that 49% of investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during the September 26 meeting.

On the CME FedWatch Tool, 59% of investors are also expecting a 25 basis point rate hike.

These rising odds come ahead of the release of the US CPI data on September 15. Data from MarketWatch shows that investors expect the CPI to remain unchanged at 3.4%, which is still above the Fed’s target of 2%.

An earlier report by CoinGape also noted that Fed governor Chris Waller said that the FOMC decision will depend on what the August inflation data shows. If it shows that inflation is rising, the odds of the Fed hiking rates will increase, and this could push Ethereum price down.

Ethereum Price Prediction Amid Rising Exchange Outflows

The price of Ethereum is trading within a rising triangle pattern on the four-hour chart. This pattern, and the rising outflows from exchanges, suggest that the future Ethereum price outlook is bullish.

If Ethereum price moves above the triangle’s resistance of $2,520, a 6.82% surge, that is equivalent to the height of this pattern could ensue, and this could take ETH to $2,690.

On-chain data also shows that 2.86 million ETH was either purchased or sold at $2,475. If Ethereum holds this support, the price could surge to $2,800, per analyst Martinez.

The MACD line that is positive suggests that the momentum is favoring bulls, making a move to $2,700 likely to occur. However, zooming in on this indicator shows that the MACD line has crossed the signal line, and it is now tipping south to suggest that bulls are losing their grip.

The CMF reading of -0.15 also suggests that the selling pressure is outpacing the buying pressure on the four-hour timeframe, and Ethereum price might drop to test support at the lower boundary of the triangle pattern before resuming an uptrend.