Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August 2026?

• Bitcoin is currently trading at around $65,200, up 4.2% over the past 7 days. 
• Prediction markets implied odds are currently at 26% for Bitcoin to dip below $60,000 in August, while no is at 76%. 
• BTC 50-day EMA has been around $64,500 for the past several weeks, with resistance building around $65,500 

Overview 

BTC is trading at $65,200 on August 10 (as of writing), placing the $60,000 threshold approximately 8% below the current price. 

The specific question in this prediction market contract does not require Bitcoin to close at $60,000 at the end of August, but rather resolves to Yes if, at any point during this month, the price on Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute chart records a close below $60,000. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis in August 2026 

BTC’s current technical setup gives bulls a slight advantage following relief from macro indicators, most notably a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which has boosted the probability of the Fed holding rates again at the September meeting. 

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading slightly above its 50-day EMA of around $64,500 as well as the 200-day EMA $64,100. This puts the region between $64,000 and $65,000 at the centre of a potential near-term battleground. 

A breakdown below this level could weaken the recent macro gains, with $62,500 as the next intermediate level before traders turn toward the psychological $60,000 support. 

ETF Inflows Could Keep Bitcoin Above $60K 

Institutional demand over the past week represents one of the strongest cases against a drop to $60K. 

US Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of $865 million ($170.1 million, $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million and $101.7 million respectively across the five trading sessions from August 3 through August 7). 

A continued demand could provide the base to defend against potential pullbacks towards the $60K level; however, reduced inflows especially on Blackrock’s IBIT which accounted for over 70% of the inflows risks disrupting the key support levels.

Key Data to Watch 

July’s CPI data scheduled for August 12 is the major statistic to watch this week; a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could revive concerns around tighter Federal Reserve policy and pressure risk assets, potentially giving bears another route toward $60,000.

It is also interesting to observe how quickly prediction market traders are repricing this particular market, alongside the Fed rate September market.