The Hidden Reason Meta Wants to Launch Its Own Prediction Market

Meta is reportedly developing a new prediction market app called “Arena” as the CEO, Mark Zuckerberg looks for the next major growth opportunity for the company. Zuckerberg has taken this step as major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket increasingly attract more users interested in predicting real-world events.  However, the interest of Meta in prediction markets may not just be about copying the latest online trend.

Meta’s Search for the Next Big Internet Habit

The New York Times reported that Zuckerberg has asked a small team at Meta to develop an independent prediction market app, which is internally known as “Arena”.  It would operate separately from its other social media platforms like Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram.

Meta is not considering starting with real money betting. Instead, the company is looking at a system where users will earn points. It seems to be coming up with a new way for people to interact online by making predictions about events, trends, sports, politics, and culture.

This is not the first time Meta has tried to explore new online trends. Previously, it has quickly entered markets where users seem to spend more time such as social features and short-form video.

And now, Meta appears to have been keeping an eye on prediction markets and its growing popularity, and is considering bringing that behaviour into its own ecosystem.

May 2026 alone saw the market explode in growth, recording $29.4 billion in trading volume.

Why Prediction Markets Are Suddenly Valuable

Before, prediction markets served only a small group of analysts and traders, but have now expanded to a larger part of online culture. Today, users can predict everything, including global developments, entertainment, political events, and sports results.

Polymarkets and Kalshi platforms have rapidly grown as they attract markets for real-time predictions. According to The Block, the two platforms together handled over 150 billion trades this year alone.

The potential for making money is also a factor attracting attention, as these platforms earn fees from the activities happening on their markets.

The opportunity is even more interesting for Meta because it has a huge user base. Should the company finally launch Arena, it could introduce Meta prediction markets to millions of people from its existing platforms.

This includes over 3.5 billion daily active users across Facebook and Instagram. Therefore, the company won’t have to build an audience afresh.

What Next? Meta’s Bigger Move Into Prediction Markets

Meta previously attempted a prediction platform by launching Forecast in 2020; however, it was shut down in 2022. However, since that time, the prediction market landscape has gone through changes with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi bringing life to these markets.

As the CEO, Zuckerberg pushes new Meta prediction markets, the move could be more than just betting on outcomes. The company views the markets as another way for people to interact online, follow events, and share opinions.

The industry is experiencing a rise in real-time content and faster access to information with AI as the driving factor, changing the way online communities engage with the world.

Digital conversations could just be extended to prediction markets, where people react to events and also forecast what happens next.

But Meta’s plan isn’t coming smoothly. Prediction markets are facing challenges of increasing regulatory attention. This is especially on issues surrounding gambling, market manipulations and insider information.

Critics have already raised concerns about the risks of combining prediction markets with a platform that serves billions of users.

U.S Senator Richard Blumenthal criticized Meta’s plans, arguing that Meta ‘profits on addiction’, and its business model could encourage addictive behaviors. Blumenthal calls for stronger safeguards around prediction markets.

Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market. Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction—kids, gamblers, & more. Stop it through KOSA & my prediction markets bills. https://t.co/e9tG1X8Fho

— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) June 23, 2026

For now, Arena is still an experiment, and whether it launches or not remains to be seen. Predicting future events seems to be rising as a bigger part of how people participate online.