FOMC Rate Decision Today: Could a Surprise Rate Hike Trigger Major Crypto Market Volatility?

The crypto market traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Rate decision.

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, July 28. The decision is scheduled for Wednesday, July 29.

Officials will release the statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The committee sits eight times a year to consider inflation, economic growth, employment, financial conditions, and risks to the economy.

Fed Expected to Maintain Current Rate Range

The interest-rate futures had a 79% of a hold probability and 21% of probability of a one-quarter point rise by the time of the decision on Wednesday.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% during its June meeting. The vote was unanimous.

🇺🇸 FOMC interest rate decision will be out today.

79% chances of a rate pause and 21% chances of a rate hike.

I personally think a rate pause will happen, but there’s something I’m concerned about.

The Fed’s future interest decision.

In the last FOMC meeting, 50% of the… pic.twitter.com/9z7pyrz9mY

— Ted (@TedPillows) July 29, 2026

A constant rate would maintain the same level of borrowing rates by households, businesses, and financial institutions.

However, a surprise 25-basis-point increase would lift the range to 3.75%–4.00%. The result of that may strain risk-sensitive markets.

The increase in rates tends to bolster Treasury yields and the dollar, and lower investor interest in speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies and technology shares.

The July gathering marks Kevin Warsh’s second policy meeting since becoming Federal Reserve chairman on May 22.

The FOMC is headed by Warsh and decides where the United States monetary policy will go and assesses the risks.

Investors will look at what he says on inflation, the employment, growth, and whether he will tighten further into 2026.

What’s Next For BTC, ETH, and XRP Price Ahead of Fed Meeting

Bitcoin price traded at $64,375 ahead of today’s Fed rate announcement. BTC price has been consolidating around its daily range of $62,772 to $64,485.

BTC should defend the $63,000 support region to retain its recovery. Any breakdown would reveal $62,000 and the low of the session.

If Bitcoin’s long-range prediction reaches a point of over $64,500 to gain momentum. The following levels of resistance are close to $65,000 and $66,000 if the bullish trend mounts.

Ethereum price traded at about $1,917 after a slight 1% surge over the past 24-hours. To enhance the short-term structure, buyers should reclaim $1,930.

XRP price surged by 3% over the past 24 hours; if the bullish trend continues, the Ripple price will rally above $1.10 ahead of the Fed rate decision today. A further surge may put $1.15 back.

Why a Surprise Rate Hike Could Pressure Crypto

An increase in the rate would increase the cost of borrowing and enhance returns that can be earned on safer assets. Such a shift may decrease the demand of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risk-based investments

Increased rates may also favor the U.S. dollar and drive Treasury yields upwards. The two actions tend to make the digital assets and technology stocks more difficult.

An unexpected increase may prompt a selling spurt since most traders do not anticipate the Fed to make sudden policy adjustments. During a drastic fall, the leveraged long positions would bear the highest risk.

Compulsory liquidations would add to selling pressure and generate greater price movements. Bitcoin could retest support if buyers fail to absorb those liquidations.

FOMC Rate Decision Could Drive Volatility

An unchanged FOMC Rate may support the crypto market, although Warsh’s press conference could reverse the first reaction.

An unexpected increase would empower the dollar and lead to selling in Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and digital currencies.

The leveraged positions can also enhance volatility since liquidations due to forced reasons can produce sharp falls during low liquidity periods.