Bitcoin [BTC] Futures Open Interest Swells As Halving Nears, Signals To $7,000?

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Bitcoin Futures Open Interest OKEx BitMex
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Bitcoin futures open interest is on a spike as confidence in the market regains its feet since the Black Thursday crash on Mar. 12 that saw the price of the top crypto plummet to $3,800.  A month on, the market shows signals of a bull run heading to the halving despite the price collapsing below the psychological support level at $7,000.

Bitcoin Futures open interest on a spike

According to data collected from, Skew Markets, the past month has seen steady growth in the number of outstanding market positions after a sudden collapse on Mar. 12. OKEx exchange leads the field in open interest of BTC contracts registering $659 million in value of the BTC contracts. This represents a huge spike of 42.9% in the past months in open interest volume.

BitMEX is a close second with a total of $615 million in outstanding BTC futures contracts – a minor leap from the $607 million registered on March 13th. Huobi, Binance and CME close out the top five with a total of $334 million, $202 million and $196 million respectively.

The total open interest of BTC contracts is currently at $2.3 billion, a sharp monthly rise from $1.8 billion, but still falls short of pre-crash levels at almost $6 billion. As the OI gradually swells, a return to pre-crash levels may give a hint of investors coming back to the field as trading resumes normally – a very bullish signal for Bitcoin in the run-up to its halving.

Bitcoin set to breach $7,000 as halving nears

After failing to breach resistance at $7,500 levels, BTC/USD sellers are in control of the market as Bitcoin retraced back to $6811, as at the time of writing. The three-day capitulation came amidst the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) halvings but the market is stabilizing giving off a positive vibe in the coming future.

Image: TradingView

A cross above the SMA 50 will effectively signal the start of a bull run in the next month as Bitcoin halving is only a month away. According to the stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin is greatly underpriced and the third halving is the catalyst to pushing the coin toward new all-time highs.

However, there remains doubt on the S2F model and its ability to predict Bitcoin’s price –which has a predetermined supply rate cut. Eric Wall, a crypto analyst argues,

“I think BTC has the potential to reach a market cap similar to gold (for starters), which would put it at >$300k. I think the path for it to get there largely depends on how rapidly bitcoin propagates as a phenomenon throughout society. Not according to some predetermined schedule.”

Been in the field since 2015 and he still love everything blockchain and crypto! FC Barcelona fan. Author and journalist. Follow him at @lujanodera.
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.

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