Why Bitcoin Price is Dumping Despite US Iran Deal Announcement

Bitcoin (BTC) price dumped from $66,230 to $63,880 barely a day after the US and Iran presidents signed a peace deal, and the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish policy stance could be the reason why.

Warsh chaired his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17, and his remarks were not as dovish as the market expected. In fact, the CME FedWatch Tool shows there is now a 32% chance that the Fed is going to hike rates in the July 29 meeting.

The meeting sent all risk assets lower, with the total crypto market cap dropping by 2.31% to $2.2 trillion, while the S&P 500 closed trading on June 17 with a 1.21% drop.

Bitcoin Price Drops to $63,880 Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions

The US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian have finally signed a deal to end the war after nearly four months of aggression.

The signing was expected to push Bitcoin price higher because on the first day of the war, BTC dumped from $67,760 to $63,030 as traders sold because of geopolitical concerns. With these geopolitical concerns alleviated, buyers were expected to come back.

However, CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin dropped from $66,230 to $63,677 on June 18 after the deal’s signing, as selling pressure increased.

The S&P 500 index also dropped by 1.2% on June 17 and closed trading at 7,420 points, suggesting that risk assets did not react to the bullish sentiment around the US-Iran deal.

Hawkish FOMC Meeting Overshadows Iran Peace Deal

Warsh chaired his first FOMC on June 17, and during this meeting, he noted that the US inflation rate was still too high.

The Fed has a target inflation rate of 2%, and CoinGape recently reported that the May 2026 inflation came in at 4.2%. Pushing this inflation rate below 2% may only be possible with rate hikes.

“I see no reason until we have reestablished our commitment and ability to deliver on the 2% inflation objective to revisit that,” he said.

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows that only 36% of investors expect that the rate will remain unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% at the September FOMC meeting.

Rate hikes are bearish for Bitcoin because they strengthen the US dollar, which usually trades inversely to BTC price.

The DXY rose to 100 on June 17 for the first time since March 2026 as Bitcoin price dropped from $66,000 to $63,000.

If DXY continues to surge, the long-term Bitcoin price outlook will be bearish because it will struggle under weak demand as people choose to hold the dollar rather than purchase BTC.

BTC Price Defends Rounded Top Support as Selling Pressure Increases

The price of Bitcoin is currently defending the support at $64,290 that also serves as the neckline of a bearish rounded top pattern that is emerging amid rising sell-side pressure.

The depth of this rounded top is 4.5%, which means that if BTC price drops below the support of $64,290, it might record another 4.5% drop and reach $61,397.

Selling pressure has increased significantly, as shown by the RSI line that is tipping south and has formed a lower low. The RSI reading of 44 also shows that the momentum is currently favoring bears.

The AO histogram bars that are red and on the negative side also show that bears are tightening their grip, and BTC might drop below the support of $64,290.

Bitcoin needs to close above $64,290 with three straight candles on the four-hour chart to invalidate the rounding top.