Breaking: CLARITY Act No Longer Expected To Pass In 2026

Prediction markets have ruler out the potential of the CLARITY Act approval in 2026 has cooled in the wake of new delays in the U.S. Senate. The change follows Senate Majority Leader John Thune not seeking cloture on the crypto market structure bill Tuesday.

CLARITY Act 2026 Approval Odds Diminish

The wait has cast doubt on whether lawmakers can finish the steps needed to advance the CLARITY Act before the August recess with all the work done. So far, the possibility of a cloture vote still remain in question.

Kalshi’s prediction market has borne witness to the growing scepticism. It no longer prices in the possibility of the CLARITY Act passage in 2026 as the August 7 deadline inches closer. For context, contracts setting the date for the bill to take effect before July 1, 2027 fell 8 percentage points to 41% on the day.

The odds of approval prior to Oct. 1, 2027 were the same as they were last year at 58%. However, the odds of it becoming law prior to Jan. 1, 2028 surged to 65%, per Kalshi. More than $5.42 million in trading volume has been seen on the market, as participants reappraise the bill’s legislative prospects. The market also hints that the investors no longer anticipate the CLARITY Act to make it through Congress in 2026.

What’s Next For The Crypto Bill In The US Senate?

It was the latest setback to come on the heels of the Senate’s efforts to pass a continuing resolution to keep the U.S. government running. Undecided talks surrounding ethics provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which would provide certainty to cryptocurrencies, were also cited as hurdles.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett claimed procedural issues surrounding the continuing resolution is why Thune didn’t file cloture. She said there was also some uncertainty about votes and unresolved issues which may have had an impact on the decision. To pass, the bill must be supported by both sides of the aisle and has 53 Republicans to secure the 60-vote requirement.

The Senate’s procedural clock would start if Thune is seeking CLARITY Act cloture vote on Wednesday. Due to Senate rules, legislators are required to take an intervening day between the first cloture vote. The vote on the crypto market structure bill comes after a 30-hour debate, if cloture is approved.