Why Is MSTR Stock Price Falling on Friday? Analysts Weigh In

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price dropped by 5% on October 22 to close trading at $145 as bearish macro factors continue to pressure risk assets.

Analysts are now weighing in on this decline as the company prepares to release its earnings report for Q3 2026 on October 29.

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Key Reasons Why MSTR Stock Price is Falling

The main reason behind the decline in MSTR stock price is fear around the selloff in AI stocks that triggered a 1.2% decline in the S&P 500 index, marking the worst drop since July. The Nasdaq index also dropped by 2.6%, also marking the worst performance since June.

As CoinGape earlier reported, JPMorgan analysts had earlier warned that the AI selloff might not ease as quickly as it did in July, with that sentiment dampening the outlook across the entire US stock market.

Bitcoin price decline is also causing the fall in MSTR stock today, Friday. Analyst Daan Crypto warns that BTC could extend the decline towards the $72K to $75K region if it loses the support at $80,000.

The bearish outlook is fuelling the decline in MSTR stock, considering that the company holds 848,517 BTC after the recent 267 BTC purchase, and is only 7.70% above its cost basis.

Rising oil prices are also pushing MSTR stock price down, with analyst Martini Guy noting that higher energy prices could increase inflation levels and pressure the Fed to raise interest rates, which will in turn reduce demand for risk assets.

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Key Levels to Watch in After Recent Crash

The weekly chart shows that MSTR stock price is still under a bullish momentum despite the recent drop to $145.

The crucial support level to watch now is $139. Losing that support could trigger a downtrend towards $125.

However, the pre-market gains suggest that Thursday’s crash created an opportunity for dip-buying. An increase in buying pressure could push MSTR stock price towards resistance at the 50-day EMA of $160.

The RSI line is also worth watching. This indicator had a reading of 52 at the time of writing, suggesting that bulls have a slight upper hand, which could support a sustained move above $139.

A move above the 200-day EMA will confirm a bullish reversal for Strategy shares, while a drop below $130 could suggest the downtrend is gaining strength.

Options Data Signals Potential Surge in MSTR Stock Volatility Post-Earnings

Strategy will report its earnings for Q3 2026 next week, and the options market suggests that the shares might move by 3.4% after the results come out.

Analysts expect the Bitcoin treasury company to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and higher revenues.

The Earnings Per Share is expected to come in at $21.50, with this being a 155.3% year-over-year increase. The revenue is also expected to increase by 1.3% year-over-year to $130.4 million.

Data from Polymarket also shows that there is a 97% chance that Strategy will surpass Wall Street estimates in Q3 2026.