Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Eye Further Upside Despite Geopolitical Risks and Yen Carry Trade Unwind

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up slightly today despite the price of Brent crude oil surging above $100 for the first time since May 22 because of escalating tensions in the Middle East. BTC is also shrugging off the risks of the unwinding Yen Carry trade after the Japanese Yen surged to a seven-month high.

Despite these macro fears, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says that “analysts’ consensus” suggests that Bitcoin remains a strong buy.

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Bitcoin Price Faces Pressure From Escalating Geopolitical Risks

Oil prices have surged after the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes on September 9, marking another escalation in the 6-month-long conflict.

Brent crude and WTI crude prices rose by 2.13% and 2.6%, respectively, at the time of writing. Murban Crude was also up by 6.5% to trade at $117.

Rising oil prices tend to cause concerns that future inflation will increase and prompt the Fed to hike interest rates, which will then push Bitcoin price down.

The surge also comes ahead of the release of the US CPI data on September 11. The market expects that the CPI print will remain unchanged at 3.4%. However, if the actual print is higher and the macro pressure from rising oil prices continues, it could guide the Fed’s decision at the September 16 FOMC.

A hawkish Fed could push the prices of US Treasury Yields higher and cause investors to abandon risk assets, leading to a decline in Bitcoin price.

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Yen Carry Trade Unwinds Ahead of BoJ Rate Hike

Bitcoin Price is also facing pressure from the upcoming policy meeting by the Bank of Japan on September 16, where investors are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike.

The looming hike in Japan’s interest rates has increased the value of JPY/USD to the highest point since February 2026.

The rising value of the Yen could unwind the Yen carry trade, where investors borrow the Yen at lower costs and use it to buy risk assets.

With the Yen becoming stronger and the BoJ’s upcoming rate hike, investors could reduce Yen borrowing, and this could reduce demand for Bitcoin.

Analysts Bet on Bitcoin Recovery Despite Macro Risks

Analyst Ali Martinez on X notes that Bitcoin has moved above the Warm Supply Realized Price. Martinez notes that Bitcoin price rallied by 69% in January 2023 and again by 159% in October 2023 when it moved above this price.

He added that this move is a “strong bullish signal” if the trend that occurred in the past repeats again.

The founder of MNFund, Michael van de Poppe, also notes that Bitcoin price remains above the support between $77,600 and $77,900. He notes that if BTC  price defends this support, it could move to $82,700.

Analyst Ted Pillows also says that futures data shows that traders are willing to buy below $78,000 while sell orders remain above $82,000. This suggests that Bitcoin price could remain between $78,000 and $82,000 until the CPI data comes out and confirms the Fed’s rate decision.

Data from CoinGape Prediction markets also shows that 53% of investors expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, suggesting that the event may already be priced in.

Bitcoin Price Tests Triangle Resistance

The four-hour chart shows that the price of Bitcoin is testing the resistance of a falling triangle pattern. If it closes above this resistance and creates a higher high, it moves to $80,489.

The AO bars that are green and shrinking in length also support a bullish future Bitcoin price outlook. These bars suggest that bears are losing their grip.

However, the RSI reading of 49 suggests that the bullish momentum remains weak despite today’s gain to $79,000, and BTC could remain below the resistance of $79,277.

If Bitcoin fails to close above the resistance of the falling triangle on the four-hour chart, the price could drop to retest the support at $78,400. If this support also fails to hold, BTC price might move lower to the support zone between $76,900 and $77,300.