Coinbase stock prediction after US payrolls add just 29,000 jobs in September

Coinbase stock fell 3.32% to $183.00 on Friday, October 2, after an early rally approached $200. Shares were down $6.29 at 1:33 p.m. EDT, with trading still underway near the session’s lowest levels. 

Bitcoin price traded near $85,709, Ethereum around $2,704, and XRP at $1.51 as the crypto market surged 1% over the past 24 hours.

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US payrolls add just 29,000 jobs in September

American employers added 29,000 positions in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, falling well below expectations. Anticipated 90,000 additional jobs, highlighting the gap between forecasts and reported hiring.

Unemployment increased to 4.2% from 4.1%, while revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August estimates. September’s average hourly earnings increased 0.1%, bringing annual wage growth to 3.0%. More people entering the workforce also contributed to the increase in the unemployment rate.

BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report.

Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike.

We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market. pic.twitter.com/TlenzaBFMD

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 2, 2026

Healthcare added 17,000 positions, while construction employment increased by 11,000 and manufacturing gained 9,000 jobs. The figures suggested modest hiring across several sectors rather than a broad employment expansion.

The weaker release reduced expectations for another October interest rate increase, although inflation remained central to the policy debate. A pause would leave borrowing costs unchanged rather than provide the stimulus associated with an interest rate cut.

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Coinbase stock faces shifting Fed rate expectations

October hike odds of 16% on Polymarket by 17% according to CME FedWatch. Polymarket’s probability had stood near 69% on Monday.

The repricing had already started before Friday, following softer inflation readings and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials. Treasury yields initially declined before reversing higher, underscoring uncertainty over the next policy decision.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed rate hike odds just crashed to 16% after US unemployment rose and job growth badly missed expectations. pic.twitter.com/2M47401e0v

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 2, 2026

For Coinbase stock, lower yields could improve appetite for companies exposed to speculative trading and digital assets. 

Those competing influences leave the immediate outlook dependent on both market sentiment and the stock’s ability to stabilize. Coinbase stock lost ground even as traders reduced their expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.

Coinbase stock Prediction: Will COIN Reclaim $185?

Based on Friday’s intraday trading, $185 represents the first potential recovery barrier after the sharp reversal erased gains. A sustained rebound above that area could bring the previous close of $189.29 back into consideration.

Clearing the previous close would strengthen the case for a move toward $195, followed by the morning peak near $200. 

COIN stock has potential support around $182, where the visible session lows formed. Holding that area could allow another recovery attempt, while a break would expose $180 as a psychological downside level. 

Continued trading below $185 would leave the rebound vulnerable to further setbacks during the remaining session.