SpaceX Stock Prediction as Price Slips Amid 328 Million Share Lockup Expiry

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price is dropping ahead of the unlock of 328 million shares that will become eligible for sale for the first time today, September 24.

The unlock is the fourth one since SpaceX went public on June 12, with analysts suggesting that it could push the stock price down if the holders of these shares decide to sell.

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SpaceX Stock Faces Another 328M Unlock

The first tranche of SpaceX shares that became available for selling after the IPO was 911.5 million shares that became eligible for selling on August 6. Another 319 million shares were also released on August 20.

On September 9, another 319 million shares were released, with today’s unlock of 328 million shares being the second one this month.

This will not be the last share unlock by SpaceX in 2026. SpaceX will unlock 656 million shares in October in two tranches, while more shares will become available in November and December.

Analyst Jo Bhakdi notes that today’s unlock of 328 million shares might push early investors and employees into selling 20% of these shares.

Per Bhakdi’s analysis, SpaceX trades 60 million shares every day, which means that adding 60 million shares to the market could push SpaceX stock price down. He notes that the sale will likely occur because SpaceX stock is trading above the IPO price of $135.

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Investments in Space Companies Double

The amount of private investment made into space companies has reached $23 billion in the one year leading up to June, per a report by Reuters.

The report quoted experts from Relm Insurance, who noted that these private companies are channeling capital to the space companies that have solid operations, such as SpaceX.

“Customers buying these services don’t think of them as space services. They’re sold on what they actually want,” the experts noted.

This bullish outlook around space companies comes shortly after the Nasdaq-100 increased its weighting on SPCX from 1.28% to 2.82% after its rebalancing on September 21.

SpaceX Stock Forecast as Momentum Weakens

SpaceX stock price has dropped for the last two straight days amid an increase in selling pressure. If the selling pressure remains high, SPCX stock price might drop to test suppport at the 61.8% Fib of $137.

The RSI line that is tipping south suggests that the momentum is now favoring bears. The RSI line has also dropped below 50 as bears tighten their grip, and this might push the SpaceX stock price down to this support at $137.

However, the ADX line that is tipping south suggests that the downtrend is becoming weak, and this might aid SpaceX stock in defending the support at $137, especially with the recent Grok upgrade.

If buyers come back after the initial shock of the 328 million share unlock fades, SpaceX stock price might rebound and reach the 123.6% Fib of $170.