SpaceX Stock Forecast as SPCX’s Nasdaq-100 Weighting Doubles Ahead of 318M Share Unlock

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price is up by 0.8% to trade at $153 at the time of writing. These slight gains come after the Nasdaq-100 index nearly doubled its weighting for SPCX to 2.82%.

Still, SpaceX shares are facing bearish pressure ahead of another round of share unlocks on September 24 that could increase sell-side pressure.

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SpaceX Weighting on Nasdaq-100 Doubles to 2.82%

The Nasdaq-100 index completed its quarterly rebalancing on September 21, and it increased the weighting for the SpaceX stock from 1.28% to 2.82%.

The increased weighting will require the funds that track the Nasdaq-100 index to increase their holdings, and this could increase demand for the SpaceX stock.

Still, this new weighting comes ahead of a looming share unlock on September 24. Up to 328.4 million SPCX shares will become eligible for sale for the first time on this date, and if the early investors and insiders who are holding these shares decide to sell, it could push the stock down.

However, SpaceX shares have undergone three similar unlocks so far since the company had its IPO on June 12, and each unlock has not coincided with a steep decline in price, suggesting that most of those who own the shares are choosing to hold rather than sell.

Additionally, the recent launch of the Grok 4.7 model by xAI is also boosting the SpaceX stock outlook despite the upcoming 328.4 million share unlock.

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Elon Musk Confirms Starship Launch Next Week

SpaceX is readying for its first orbital flight test for its Starship rocket on September 28. This will be the first-of-a-kind launch for SpaceX, and it could determine whether NASA will take humans back to the moon.

In an X post, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Starship will launch with Starlink V3 satellites that will assist with the operational use.

An earlier report by CoinGape noted that ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes Starship to be a major opportunity for SpaceX that could generate $10 trillion in revenue for SpaceX by 2030.

SpaceX Stock Price Targets $170 If Momentum Strengthens

The easing geopolitical tensions are boosting the demand for stocks, which could help drive more gains for SpaceX stock.

The four-hour chart shows that SPCX remains within an uptrend despite bouts of volatility. If this uptrend holds and the stock overcomes the obstacle at $158, it could move to the 123.6% Fib of $170.

The Stoch RSI reading of 72 suggests that the momentum is bullish. However, the RSI is also close to 80, suggesting that SpaceX might become overbought and make a downward correction.

The CMF reading of -0.05 also suggests that the selling pressure is outweighing the buying pressure.

If this selling pressure increases ahead of the September 24 share unlock, SpaceX stock price could move to retest the support at the 61.8% Fib of $137.