Bitcoin Price Forecast as Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to a 31-Year High

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up by 2.16% today, September 18, to trade at $78,100 at the time of writing. The gains come despite the Bank of Japan increasing interest rates to the highest level in 31 years.

The BoJ rate hike occurred two days after the US Federal Reserve also increased interest rates by 25 basis points as rising oil prices continue to exert inflationary pressures.

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Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to 1.25%

The Bank of Japan has increased the country’s interest rate from 1% to 1.5%, with this being the highest interest rate in the country since 1995.

The BoJ attributed the hike to rising consumer prices after the country’s main inflation headline reached 1.9% in August 2026, with this being slightly below the BoJ’s target of 2%.

In his speech, the BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank was committed to making sure that inflation does not cross the 2% mark, suggesting that more rate hikes are imminent.

“If risks of underlying inflation overshooting 2% materialize, that could have a negative impact on Japan’s economy,” Ueda said.

Still, the hike did not cause a drop in Bitcoin price as had been earlier anticipated because of fears that the Yen carry trade would unwind. Instead, the JPY/USD dropped to 0.00633, with this being the lowest reading since September 3.

Prior to this hike, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had pledged that the US would work with Japan to support the Yen after its value dropped to a 40-year low.

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Bitcoin Price Breaks Out of Descending Trendline

Bitcoin price has moved above the resistance of a falling trendline on the four-hour chart amid a surge in buying pressure, as shown by the green volume histogram bars.

BTC still needs to create a higher high above $79,890 to confirm a strong uptrend.

The RSI reading of 63 supports a bullish future Bitcoin outlook. The AO bars that have turned positive also suggest that bulls are tightening their grip.

If the buying pressure continues into the weekend, Bitcoin price might retest the resistance at the September 3 highs of $82,000.

Still, the recent gains come ahead of high volatility over the weekend due to reduced volume numbers. A slight increase in selling pressure might push Bitcoin price down to retest the support at the midline of the falling channel at $76,290.

Glassnode Data Signals Bitcoin is Back in Bull Territory

Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin price has moved above the True Market Mean price of $76,660.

The True Market Mean is the average price at which traders on secondary markets purchased the coins that they have been trading. With Bitcoin price now above $76,660, it suggests that these traders are now sitting on an unrealized profit.

Glassnode also adds that the move suggests that Bitcoin price is “back into a bullish regime.

Bitcoin price now faces the next resistance at $80,000m which is the average price at which treasuries purchased BTC. It also faces a higher resistance at $85,000, which is the price at which Bitcoin ETFs will break even.

Still, the rising profitability of traders on secondary markets increases the risk of them selling BTC to book profits.

CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnChain notes that 4,613 Bitcoin recently moved to Binance, suggesting an intention to sell.

If selling pressure returns, Bitcoin price might move lower to test the psychological support at $75,000.