Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Reclaims $80K in Post-Election Rally but Arthur Hayes Flags Major Downside Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up 2% today, November 5, to trade at $79,676 at the time of writing. The gains occurred after appetite for risk assets returned following the Democratic Party’s win in the midterm elections.

Inflows to BTC ETFs have also returned following the king coin’s biggest intraday gain since late September. However, Maelstrom’s co-founder, Arthur Hayes, remains bearish on the near term, saying a stronger rally will happen if certain macro conditions change.

Arthur Hayes Flags Downside Risk for Bitcoin Price After Post-Election Rally

Hayes is not bullish on Bitcoin in the near term because of the ongoing selloff in the AI sector. As CoinGape reported, the Maelstrom co-founder believes that as traders continue to dump AI sticks, it could weaken Bitcoin and other crypto prices.

But Hayes’ bearish outlook only applies in the short term. He believes that if the AI industry does face a crisis, central banks might respond by trimming interest rates. This would end up being bullish for Bitcoin price in the long run.

Hayes’ near-term bearish outlook comes despite BTC recording its biggest daily gain since September 21. The price moved from $75,700 to touching $81,000 after the Democratic Party won the majority in the November 3 US midterm elections.

Onchain Data Flashes Early Bullish Signs

Two on-chain metrics: Miners’ Position Index (MPI) and the Exchange Whale Ratio, suggest that Bitcoin price might be in the early stage of an upward trend.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the MPI has dropped to 0.2 after an earlier rise to 2.9. The drop suggests that Bitcoin miners are easing their selling, which may support a price recovery.

The spike in the MPI occurred amid a sale of 10.599 BTC by Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms as earlier reported by CoinGape.

The Binance Exchange Whale Ratio has also risen to above 0.9. This rise suggests that there is increased activity from whales. However, it does not show whether they are buying or selling.

If the whales are purchasing Bitcoin, it could set the foundation for a bullish trend to occur.

Bitcoin Price Prediction as Bulls Face a Hurdle at $80,000

Bitcoin price has stalled once again at $80,000. This price also coincides with the 61.8% Fib of $80,190.

BTC briefly closed above this price after the post-election uptrend, but it has since retreated to test it as support. If it holds and Bitcoin makes three daily closes above it, the price could move to $82,900 next.

However, the RSI line has failed to make a higher high, which weakens the future Bitcoin outlook. This shows that the bullish trend is not strong. The CMF also remains near zero, showing that neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand.

If Bitcoin loses the support at $80,000 again, it could move lower to $78,200.

The four-hour chart shows that traders might be selling after the recent gains. This is because Bitcoin attained the target of a double bottom pattern on this timeframe.

The AO bars that are also turning red on the four-hour chart suggest that the bullish momentum is becoming weak after Bitcoin price was rejected at $80,800.

The widening Bollinger bands, however, suggest that volatility is rising after the price touched the upper band. As the trend cools, the king coin may drop to the support at the middle band of $78,400.