Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of US CPI Data Today: Will BTC Rally or Crash?

Bitcoin price traded at $64,049, down 0.28%, as investors awaited the latest United States Consumer Price Index report. BTC moved between an intraday low of $63,204 and a high of $64,400. The inflation release could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recovery or faces renewed selling pressure.

US CPI Data Could Trigger Bitcoin Volatility

U.S. CPI data will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET. The previous annual inflation was 3.5%, and analysts expect it to be 3.4%. Any increase in the reading would lead to losses, any decrease could lead to an increase, and 3.4% would lead to mixed trading.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish July CPI data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists predict that headline inflation will increase by 0.1% per month following a 0.4% decrease in June.

Inflation is expected to decrease to 3.4% per year; core CPI would rise by 0.2% monthly and 2.5% yearly.

🚨 REMINDER: 🇺🇸 U.S. CPI DATA DROPS TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET!

Previous: 3.5% Forecast: 3.4%

IF INFLATION > 3.4% → MARKETS CRASH HARD

IF INFLATION < 3.4% → MARKETS RALLY HARD

IF INFLATION = 3.4% → EXPECT A MIXED REACTION pic.twitter.com/PCUQNUBorJ

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) August 12, 2026

The report will shape expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate decision. The milder inflation would lessen the pressure on the policymakers to adopt tight monetary policies.

Such a result would probably undermine the US dollar and hedge risk assets, such as Bitcoin. Nevertheless, a more robust inflation would rekindle the rate-hike worries and stress the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $4.89M Inflows as BlackRock IBIT Leads

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market recorded $4.8862 million in net inflows on August 11, according to SoSoValue. The IBIT fund was the only one that was acquiring new capital as BlackRock received 50.20 million dollars in the session. 

FBTC of Fidelity had outflows of 4.13 million and ARKB incurred losses of 11.55 million. VanEck’s HODL also recorded $10.30 million in withdrawals. The total value of trading was 1.42 billion and combined net assets were 77.46 billion, which is 6.06% of the market value of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Today: Key Levels To Watch Ahead of CPI Data

The latest BTC price traded near $64,027 after gaining 0.52% during the latest four-hour session.

Bitcoin recovered after an intraday low of around $63,600 and was still below a number of key resistance points. 

The four-hour setup shows Bitcoin price defending the $64,000 psychological level after its recent decline. BTC Price slowly slipped under this level and then began to climb towards the level of $64,027.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains bearish, with the MACD line indicating divergence. The Relative Strength Index was 46.32, which is a neutral trend.

The recovery indicates that the demand is still active in the range of the $63,600 to $64,000 support area. However, Bitcoin still faces resistance at $64,400 and $65,000.

An upward confirmation above $64,400 may pave the way to $65,000. Further momentum may allow BTC to test the stronger $65,500 resistance level.

The inability to secure $64,000 might leave the support area of $63,600 vulnerable once again. Further decrease can put $63,000 and $62,500 in reach. Any reading above 3.4% may lead to a re-sell in risk markets. BTC price may then dip to$62,000, followed by $60,000.