Bitcoin (BTC) is reeling under the bear market. The crypto market is still under pressure, while the Bitcoin price continues to dive below the crucial $30,000 level. However, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, claims the bear market is almost over. He is optimistic because periods with the Realized Price Moving Average (RPMA) <1 and Relative Strength Index <50 have historically been great times to buy. Although, PlanB also thinks it can take a while before RPMA and RSI will rise again.
PlanB: Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Is Over As Bear Hug Eases
PlanB recently disclosed that the Bitcoin (BTC) price is forming a new bottom for the next bull market. BTC trend this week moved as per PlanB forecasts, the price made a low near the $28,500 level.
Now, PlanB in a tweet reports the bear market is almost over and the price should start rising again. He believes the RPMA and RSI at current levels suggest a bottom for Bitcoin. However, it could be 6-9 months (like 2014 and 2018/19), or 1-2 months (like 2011 and 2020) before we could see a bounce. Currently, the Bitcoin is moving sideways near the $30,000 level.
“Realized Price / Moving Average (RPMA, purple) shows the Bitcoin cycle best. Relative Strength Index (RSI, yellow) is similar, but can be misleading at critical times (e.g. 2nd half 2021). The good news: bear market is almost over. Waiting for RPMA and RSI to start rising again.”
Furthermore, PlanB also shared a correlation between the U.S. equities market and Bitcoin, especially S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Both the equities market and Bitcoin have dived lower since November 2021.
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Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is in a bear market as it has dived nearly 20%. Analysts believe Bitcoin accumulation at the current price could give more returns to long-term investors.
Bitcoin Halving Still Remains the Main Indicator
Despite PlanB view on the bear market, his followers also believe the bear market is still not over, considering the Bitcoin halving. The trend shows October as the bottom where the bitcoin price could confirm a rebound. However, if the bear market ends in 1-2 months if the 2Y realized price and RSI make a v-shape recovery. A new all-time-high could be seen in a year.
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