Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: XAU/BTC Correlation Hits 6-Year High Amid Currency Debasement Risks

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up by 0.96% today, September 4, to trade at $79,262 at the time of writing. BTC is now up by 23% in the last one month since August 4. During the same period, gold has moved from $4,130 to $4,512 at the time of writing. Bitwise says that gains have pushed the correlation between the two assets to the highest level in six years.

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Bitcoin vs Gold Correlation Surges to 6-Year High

The CIO at Bitwise, André Dragosch, noted that in August, when the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government will buy back government bonds, the price of Bitcoin recorded its biggest weekly gain since March 2024 of 22.4%.

Dragosch noted that as BTC gained, many investors failed to also check on gold, whose price gained 5% week-over-week while most crypto stocks fell.

The Bitwise executive now says that Bitcoin and gold “moved in lockstep” during the month, and this pushed the 3-month rolling correlation to the highest point since 2020.

However, Dragiosch noted that Bitcoin is diverging away from stocks because its correlation with stocks has dropped to the lowest point since 2025.

The analyst attributes this correlation to investors choosing to hold both Bitcoin and gold because of concerns that fiat will become weak because of people selling bonds.

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XAU/BTC Drops to 9-Month Low

Bitcoin has posted higher gains than gold after moving from $63,000 in August to $81,000 on September 4.

These gains by Bitcoin have pushed the XAU/BTC reading to 0.05496, with this being the lowest reading seen since January 2026.

The ADX line suggests that the downtrend is strong and XAU/BTC might continue to drop to the 2025 low of 0.047.

However, the US jobs data released on September 4 that suggested that the labor market is strong has increased the odds of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting to 60%.

The surging odds pushed the Bitcoin price to $78,000 and caused a 2.4% gain in the XAU/BTC reading. If this reading climbs and BTC weakens against gold, XAU/BTC could retest the resistance at 0.056.

Bitcoin Price Analysis as Bears Retest Support

The price of Bitcoin has been making higher highs since August 21. This move suggests that the buying pressure is higher than the selling pressure.

However, the gains paused after Bitcoin’s value reached the resistance at $81,363, and the price is now dropping to the support at the middle Bollinger band of $78,726

The drop occurred amid concerns that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates on September 17, causing traders to sell risk assets.

If the rate hikes occur and Bitcoin closes below this support of $78,726, the price might drop to the support at the lower Bollinger band of $75,335.

Still, a recent report by CoinGape revealed that analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to move to $85,000 if it can close above the resistance at $80,600.

However, this gain to $85K could only occur if the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates drop and the yield on US bonds drops, and pushes investors towards risk assets.