XRP Price Forecast Ahead of 2026 US Elections

US-based crypto coins such as Ripple (XRP) are in focus ahead of the US mid-term elections on November 3. Per analysts, crypto prices edged lower during the last three elections since 2014.

With XRP already showing weakness in the “Uptober” season when crypto market is expected to edge higher, will the 2026 mid-term elections push the price lower or will other macro factors fuel a recovery?

XRP Price in Focus Ahead of Midterm Elections

XRP, like Bitcoin, has edged lower during mid-term election months. In November 2018, XRP price dropped from $0.56 to $0.32. Another 39% decline occurred in November 2022, with the price moving from $0.51 to $0.31 during the month.

Analysts are warning of a similar drop this year. Vnkumar on X opines that the market will “definitely crash” after the mid-term elections are over.

Analyst Popeye also notes that every mid-term election coincided with the bear market of Bitcoin’s halving cycle. This is what pushed BTC and altcoin prices lower during previous election periods.

The anticipation of a looming XRP price decline is pushing investors to minimize risk as seen in the drastic drop in XRP’s open interest and spot volumes per a previous CoinGape XRP price analysis.

Demand for XRP ETFs is also cooling as the mid-term elections approach. SoSoValue shows the products have seen $12.09 million in inflows month-to-date, with this being a notable drop from the $121 million in inflows seen in September 2026.

Key Factors That Could Support XRP Recovery After Midterms

The outcome of the November mid-term election will be a main factor that will determine whether XRP price will recover in the remainder of Q4.

As CoinGape previously reported, Ripple-backed PAC Fairshake has launched a $30 million campaign against an anti-crypto candidate.

If crypto-opposed Senators secure the majority of votes during the election, it could derail any pro-crypto bills tabled before Congress after election. However, a pro-crypto Congress could be bullish for XRP price.

Beyond the elections, institutional interest towards XRP is rising. Evernorth is bringing 473 million XRP to NASDAQ after its public listing today, October 14.

Standard Chartered also launched institutional custody for Ripple’s RLUSD as earlier reported by CoinGape.

Data from rwa.xyz also shows that the 30-day RWA transfer volumes on XRPL have soared by 1,400% to $7.03 billion.

These bullish developments could boost the XRP price outlook post midterms, once the uncertainty about the election outcome eases.

Key Levels to Watch in XRP Price Ahead of November 3

XRP price is currently testing whether support at the 200-day EMA will hold. Closing below this support could trigger a decline towards the FVG gap left behind during the mid-August rally.

The midline of the FVG gap at $1.18 is the main support level to watch, because a close below it could kickstart a strong downtrend towards $0.99.

Conversely, XRP price may avert a downtrend if it remains above the 200-day EMA. Closing above it could kickstart an uptrend to the obstacle at the 50-day EMA to confirm whether the short-term trend is strong to sustain a move towards $2.

The RSI has dropped below 50 to suggest that the bearish momentum is gaining strength ahead of the mid-term elections, which supports the bearish thesis of a drop to the FVG gap.