Bitcoin price outlook ahead of Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting

Bitcoin price slipped to $76,623 on September 2 as investors prepared for two events this month. The leading cryptocurrency lost 1.88% over 24 hours, extending weakness after failing to hold momentum above $80,000.

The wider crypto market was down 1.78% to $2.58 trillion in a macro-related selloff. Ether was trading at approximately $2,430, with XRP price hovering at $1.36 and Solana trading around $101.

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BTC Holds Key Support Ahead of Sep 15-16 FOMC Meeting

The Federal Reserve will sit on September 15 and 16, with the decision being announced on the second day. Market pricing reflects a 68% likelihood of an increase in rates within the current target of 3.50%-3.75%. Traders put a 32% probability on no change rates, and no change probabilities are at zero.

An increase would boost Treasury yields and make the dollar stronger, which would be another headwind to Bitcoin and other risk assets. Special emphasis will also be laid on economic forecasts and the press conference to provide directions on further meetings.

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CLARITY Act Vote Arrives September 15

The Senate is expected to hold a procedural CLARITY Act vote on September 15. To proceed with debate and surpass the filibuster requirement of the chamber, lawmakers require 60 votes. The vote is not the ultimate approval and subsequent negotiations and a new vote is required.

The proposal aims at a more explicit federal regulation of digital assets and more distinct separation of the largest regulators. 

Development would enhance institutional trust and encouragement mood throughout Bitcoin, the price of XRP, Ether, and Solana. Loss could rekindle regulatory confusion, particularly with the election timetable reducing the legislative time left.

Bitcoin Price Outlook and Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Meeting

The four-hour structure of Bitcoin price is weak following its rejection at the resistance around $80,000. The MACD line has a value of -287.95, which is lower than the negative 126.17 signal line. Its negative -161.78 histogram validates that short-term momentum remains biased towards even greater weakness.

The Relative Strength Index is dropped to 33.97, which is close to oversold at 30.

The closest significant support is the $75,000 zone, and it will be the difference between consolidation and a deeper correction. The four-hour close below that would be decisive, and would reveal the former breakout area at around $68,000.

A recovery of more than $80,000 would be better and would put the $82,000 within reach as per the full Bitcoin forecast report. The next breakout would then be to hit the target of $85,000 but this would be subject to volume confirmation.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Post Strongest Monthly Inflows in Over a Year

In August, bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $3.5 billion in inflows, the highest monthly inflows since July 2025. Glassnode data revealed a new wave of institutional buying as the Bitcoin bounced back after weakness and unstable fund flows. 

The recovery was after the erratic ETF trading that included the few months of huge net withdrawals. As of September 1 ET, according to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling to $ 236 million.