Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of US Midterms: Will BTC Crash Below $70K?

Bitcoin price hovered at $81,595 on October 23, ahead of the November 3, 2026, US midterm elections. 

Ethereum price traded at $2,397, and XRP traded at 1.32, as per CoinMarketCap. The upcoming vote has revived discussion on the downturns of Bitcoin after four prior midterm election cycles.

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US Midterm Election: November 3, 2026

Americans will vote on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats being contested. The Senate elections have 33 regular elections and two special elections.

The midterms are in between the second term of President Donald Trump, both the houses of the congress are in the line to control. In 36 states, voters will also elect governors and decide on many state legislative races.

The result may have an effect on the law of cryptocurrency by altering the partisan composition of congressional committees and the overall legislative agenda. Voting is already going on in the United States, and the voting pattern and deadline vary among states.

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Bitcoin’s Record After Four Midterm Elections

Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the pattern in an election comparison prior to this year’s election.

He has graphed the decline of Bitcoin after the 2010 midterms and the 2014 elections, which were 72% and 65%, respectively. Since the 2018 election, the drop has been to 52%, and since the 2022 midterm elections, to 27%, according to his analysis.

https://t.co/sT0b0k3eDK

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 23, 2026

But Martinez said the observations don’t necessarily prove that elections caused the losses. The comparison is only for four cycles, which may not be useful as a standalone forecasting tool.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold $80,500 or Slide Toward $79,000?

As of the writing, the BTC price stood at $81,515 on the supplied Binance four-hour chart. 

The relative strength index (RSI) was at 43.21, just below the 51.22 moving average and the 50 neutral level. 

The MACD line was at -190.80, indicating that the line is below the signal line at 4.01, and the histogram was at -194.81. 

The psychological level of $80,000 would be in focus in the bear scenario, if it is closed below $80,500 for 4 hours.

But $80,500 will allow one more try to recover the $82,000, leaving a recovery scenario alive. If the breakout is sustained above resistance, then the target future Bitcoin outlook could be set at $83,500 which is resistance plus the height of the range.

FedWatch Shows 91.7% Chance of Rate Hold at October 28 Meeting

The market has priced in an FED pause leading up to the Oct 28, 2026 policy meeting. The FedWatch chart provided shows a 91.7% chance of no change in interest rates, indicating high confidence in the stability of rates. That would keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75% – 4.00%.

An 8.3% probability, meanwhile, exists that an increase to 4.00%–4.25% will occur, making further tightening less likely. The chart shows that, at 0%, buyers of rate cuts give no odds to any chance of a rate cut, indicating market expectations are firmly in favour of a policy hold.