Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Crash or Rally as U.S.-Iran War Escalates?

Bitcoin price climbed 1.02% to $64,086 during Saturday trading, while the wider crypto market remained broadly flat. The escalating U.S.-Iran tensions heightened uncertainty in risk assets. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $132 million in net inflows. 

The IBIT at BlackRock contributed to adding $136 million, which counterbalanced mixed activity in other funds throughout the session. The Crypto market gained 0.95% to reach $2.19 trillion on July 18, supported by improving regulatory expectations. 

U.S.-Iran War Raises Market Risks

Iran suspended commitments under its June memorandum with the United States. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi accused Washington of violating the agreement through renewed attacks. 

Iran warned Gulf countries against allowing American forces to use their airspace or territory. Iranian officials also accused the United States of striking civilian infrastructure and killing civilians. Washington claims its actions are against military posts yet no proof can substantiate conflicting allegations.

🇺🇸🚨 NEXT WEEK COULD BE HUGE 🚨🇺🇸

According to Eleanor Terrett, industry leaders say they are now preparing for the release of the updated CLARITY Act text expected next week.

Momentum continues to build for regulatory clarity in the U.S. 🇺🇸⚖️🚀 pic.twitter.com/vjkXrWmIDF

— EyesOpeonAmerica (@eyesOpeonAmer) July 18, 2026

The confrontation has renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for international oil shipments. Iraq and Jordan are speeding up an 18-billion pipeline project to lessen reliance on the precarious waterway. 

The proposed network would be capable of carrying around $2.25 million barrels a day to facilitate alternative exports in case of disruptions in the region. An increase in oil prices would rekindle inflation concerns, reduce risk appetite, and push Bitcoin below its present support zone.

CLARITY Act Adds Regulatory Support

Regulatory developments may provide Bitcoin with a separate source of support during the geopolitical turmoil. According to Senator Cynthia Lummis, the CLARITY Act would help enhance customer asset protection in cryptocurrency bankruptcies. 

The proposal solves issues revealed by Celsius, Voyager, and FTX, in which clients were forced to endure protracted asset claims cases.

Industry officials anticipate revised legislation next week, though it is not clear whether it will be passed.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $132M Inflows as IBIT Adds $136M

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds saw a daily net inflow of $132.30 million on July 17. 

BlackRock’s IBIT led the session with $136.48 million, offsetting Fidelity’s $4.18 million outflow from FBTC. Other major funds, including GBTC, BTC, BITB, ARKB, HODL, and BRRR, reported no daily flows. 

The value of combined trading was 2.43 billion, and total net assets were 77.74 billion. That was 6.04% of the market capitalization of Bitcoin. The cumulative net inflows increased to $51.35 billion. IBIT remained the largest product, holding $47.26 billion in assets

Will Bitcoin Price Rally Further or Retest the $63,000 Support?

As of the writing, the BTC price soared to $64,266, gaining 0.23% on the four-hour chart.

Bitcoin price has since come out of a short-lived test of the $63,000 support zone in the most recent market pullback. The recovery has brought the price back to above $64,000, where buyers are trying to recover.

The MACD line crossed its signal line, and the histogram became a little positive. This positioning implies enhancement of bullish pressure, yet momentum is less than in the prior surge.

Meanwhile, Chaikin Money Flow is 0.34, which reveals continuous capital inflows and active buying interest.

A four-hour close above that may be considered a confirmed close, and then proceed to $65,500 and then to $66,000 as per the future Bitcoin outlook. 

But falling short of holding $64,000 can lead to the re-exposure of $63,000 and then the support level of $62,000. The short-term forecast is cautiously positive as long as Bitcoin is above the bolded support of $64000.