COIN Stock Price as CLARITY Act Passage Odds Fall Despite Ethics Provision

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) stock price is down by 2.22% today, July 22, to trade at $171 at the time of writing. The drop comes amid a decline in CLARITY Act passage odds after the crypto bill faced a new hurdle shortly after the White House agreed to ethics provisions.

CLARITY Act Passage Odds Fall

Data from Polymarket shows there is currently a 41% chance that the CLARITY Act crypto bill will pass before the end of 2026.

The odds had risen to 52% on July 21 after President Donald Trump made concessions to have an ethics provision in this bill, driving a 9% gain in COIN stock price on July 21.

But these odds later dropped after some Democratic Senators opposed plans by the White House to have the DoJ enforce ethics provisions instead of the State Attorney General.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks termed the White House compromise an “unserious offer,” adding that senators will keep working towards a version of the bill that holds everyone accountable.

Senator Thom Tillis also says the bill is not quite there and some changes were still needed before Senators can vote to advance it.

COIN Stock Breaks From Consolidation as Buying Pressure Rises

The price of COIN stock moved above the resistance of $170 on July 21. That marked the first time that Coinbase shares have closed above this psychological resistance since June 2.

The move occurred due to a rise in buying pressure as seen in the CMF reading of 0.07. This CMF has also created a higher high, suggesting that the buying pressure is strong.

If the gains continue on optimism that the CLARITY Act will pass, COIN stock price could target the psychological resistance at $200. The bullish outlook across the broader crypto market after Bitcoin price gained to $66,000 could also aid this gain.

The ADX line that is rising suggests that the upward trend is gaining strength, and this also supports the bullish thesis of a move to $200.

However, CLARITY Act odds are dropping, and this could cause buyers to hesitate. If this happens, the price of COIN could wipe out the recent gains and retest recent lows near $150.

$1.9 Trillion Asset Manager Issues $158 COIN Stock Target

Raymond James, an investment bank with $1.9 trillion in client assets, has initiated coverage on COIN stock, saying that the stock has a target of $158. This is 8% below the price of $171 at the time of writing.

The investment bank bases its outlook on weak trading volumes because of the downturn in the crypto market. This mirrors an earlier forecast by Oppenheimer, which also trimmed its COIN stock price target to $209 because of weak spot trading volumes.

However, Raymond Hames noted that Coinbase’s product line that also includes prediction markets, could generate more than $100 million in annualized revenue.

Coinbase will release its earnings for Q2 2026 on July 30, and analysts estimate the company to report $0.19 in earnings per share, a jump from the loss of $1.49 per share reported in Q1 2026.