Will Bitcoin price crash below $75K After US midterm elections begin?

Bitcoin price is trading near $76,700 ahead of today’s US midterm elections, as traders assess political risks. 

Ethereum is priced around $2250, and XRP is trading close to $1.25. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently around $2.58 trillion, with a roughly 3.4% drop in 24 hours. Bitcoin is down 4% over a week, signaling waning risk appetite.

US midterm elections today: What to expect?

US voters are deciding control of Congress on Tuesday, November 3. The outcome could influence legislation, government spending, regulation and expectations. Stocks, bonds, the dollar and cryptocurrencies could be impacted by those developments.

There are a few potential scenarios markets are mulling. If Republicans win control of both houses, they may be able to maintain the administration’s agenda. If Democrats take control of either house, it could make it more difficult for policy changes to pass and increase scrutiny in Congress. The outcome could influence the regulations of crypto.

The previous midterm cycles of Bitcoin can be used for historical comparison, although three elections are not sufficient to make a reliable forecast. 

BTC dropped approximately 50% in 71 days back in 2014 and rose 24.5% in the year thereafter. In 2018, it dropped 50% in 38 days, then rose 44.9% over the next year. Bitcoin fell 25% in 13 days during 2022, with a subsequent recovery of 92.3% over the course of the following year.

That trend implies that a dip in performance following an election has been an indicator of strength at times. But it’s not a sign that Bitcoin will make the same move again in 2026. Liquidity, interest rates, regulation and institutional demand continue to play a role in driving.

Will Bitcoin price crash below $75K?

Bitcoin’s technical picture remains weak as price trades below key moving averages. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 44 indicating weak momentum and heading into oversold conditions. The daily MACD is around -1,359.62, below its signal line at -884.20. It has a negative histogram at nearly -475.43, which shows bearish momentum is still dominant.

Traders are keeping an eye on support near $76k. If it can break decisively, the next level of support is expected to be at $76,500, before the psychological $75,000 level comes into focus. If Bitcoin price breaks the $75K level then it might trigger more selling pressure and open up more downside risk.

On the upside, Long-term BTC projection needs to reclaim resistance near $77,500. Breaking above that level will unlock $78k to enhance the near-term outlook. Volatility can be spurred by election headlines, but the outcome itself will not dictate direction.

Bitcoin ETF outflows add pressure

On November 2, the combined net outflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to about $398.6 million, continuing the trend of two consecutive days of outflows. BlackRock saw outflows of nearly $405.3 million in its IBIT, while Fidelity saw outflows of approximately $6.7 million in its FBTC.

Total net assets at the funds were around $98.1 billion. They had a cumulative net inflow since their launch of approximately $56.6 billion. The withdrawals are indicative of deceleration in institutional demand ahead of the polls, but net flows are still positive.