MSTR Stock Forecast as STRC Buybacks Fuel Concerns Over Strategy’s 20% Market Share

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price is down by 4% in pre-market trading today, September 15. The drop comes despite the recovery of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, which is now only 1.6% shy of its par value of $100.

STRC’s gain to near par follows Strategy’s continuous buybacks of this preferred stock. However, concerns are now emerging about the sustainability of this model and whether there is actual demand for the shares.

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Analysts Weigh in on Strategy’s $950M STRC Buyback

Strategy has used $950.8 million to repurchase its STRC preferred stock since July 2026. The repurchases started after bearish pressure on MSTR stock pushed STRC down to an all-time low of $71 in June 2026.

Because of these repurchases, STRC stock price has gained by 27% from the June 2026 low. The shares reached a 15-week high of $98.41 by the market’s close on September 14 after another buyback of $139 million in shares, as earlier reported by CoinGape.

These buybacks are now drawing scrutiny after an X user noted that Strategy accounted for nearly 20% of STRC volumes between July and September 2026.

Digital credit adviser Brian Brookshire now notes that it is not healthy for Strategy to account for nearly 20% of STRC’s market as it tries to support the price.

Analyst Strategy Maxi has also questioned the dilution of MSTR stock through multiple sales as Strategy seeks to raise funds to support STRC buybacks.

The analyst also proposed that Strategy retires STRC and remains with the other preferred stocks: STRK, STRD and STRF.

“Greater $STRC notional increases the burden of payment and market liquidity and will prompt more dilution… I see a better path: focus on accumulating Bitcoin reserves instead of grandiose ambitions to formulate digital credit and digital money,” the analyst said.

Despite the criticism, Strategy’s Bitcoin model remains strong, with the Bitcoin Treasury company now sitting on an unrealized profit of $1.1 billion on its Bitcoin holdings.

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Barclays Reiterates Buy Rating on MSTR Stock Despite STRC Criticism

Barclays analyst Nick Cremo has reiterated a buy rating on MSTR stock despite the ongoing concerns around STRC buybacks.

The analyst has also raised the target for the crypto stock from $125 to $160, suggesting that they see a 21% surge in price.

The new Barclays rating comes barely a week after Canaccord also upgraded its MSTR stock target from $175 to $179, as earlier reported by CoinGape.

The upgrades come amid an increase in Strategy’s market cap to $54.4 billion, with Strategy now ranking as the 220th largest company in the US after rising seven positions by market close on September 14.

MSTR Stock Tests Key Resistance Level as Bearish Pressure Fades

The price of MSTR stock is also moving within a bullish setup despite growing scrutiny around whether buybacks to support STRC are sustainable.

The weekly chart shows that MSTR is testing the resistance at $142. The stock has tested this resistance for four straight weeks without breaking out.

If MSTR stock can clear this obstacle at $142, it could move to the May high of $189.

The AO bars that are negative but green support a bullish outlook for the crypto stock. These bars suggest that bears are losing their grip near this resistance at $142.

Still, the RSI reading of 51 suggests that the momentum is slightly favoring bullish. Unless this RSI creates a higher high, MSTR stock might continue to face rejection at $142 and could drop to $119, especially if a sell-off occurs after the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.