Bernstein Says SpaceX Quarterly Results Matter Less Than AI Strategy

SpaceX shares gained ground ahead of the company’s first quarterly earnings report since its June IPO. Analysts remain focused on the company’s long-term artificial intelligence strategy rather than its near-term financial results.

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Bernstein Keeps Outperform Rating Ahead of Earnings

Bernstein SocGen Group repeated its Outperform rating and maintained a $239 price target on SpaceX ahead of the company’s earnings release scheduled after Tuesday’s market close.

The firm said investor discussions continue to focus on whether SpaceX can launch enough satellites to support its planned space-based data center network. Analysts identified rapid Starship reuse as the biggest factor that could influence the company’s long-term valuation.

Bernstein also pointed to semiconductor availability, regulatory approvals, and sustained demand for computing capacity as key issues. The firm said China competition, Starlink’s global broadband opportunity, and the direct-to-device mobile business remain secondary considerations.

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Stock Recovers After Steep Post-IPO Decline

SpaceX stock rose nearly 3% during Tuesday’s session and traded above $111, extending a modest rebound after recent weakness. Even with the latest gain, the shares remain more than 50% below their 52-week high of $225.64 and close to their yearly low of $107.01.

The stock has declined about 33% during the past six months after reaching record levels following its June 12 initial public offering. Bernstein said short-term price movements should carry less weight than management’s confidence in future growth.

The firm wrote that quarterly earnings are unlikely to change its investment view. Instead, management’s outlook for expanding AI infrastructure and satellite deployment will receive greater attention.

AI Business Takes Center Stage

Wall Street expects SpaceX to report a second-quarter loss of about $1.9 billion on revenue near $6.8 billion. Analysts expect the loss to narrow substantially from the previous quarter, while some forecasts suggest the company could approach break-even later this year.

The company continues to shift beyond its traditional launch business. Rocket launches now account for roughly one-fifth of revenue, while Starlink remains the largest and only consistently profitable segment.

AI-related operations are expected to become the company’s biggest revenue source as demand for computing capacity grows. SpaceX recently secured major infrastructure agreements, including a reported contract with Anthropic valued at about $1.25 billion per month.

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