The development of a vibrant and liquid crypto derivatives market is imperative for the success of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Because if the options market is anything to go by, some in the growing derivatives trading market are confident that BTC prices may end up surging past the $20,000 mark by the end of the year.
This is according to data streams from Skew, an analytics platform, which reveals that there is a nine percent probability of this magic happening.
These statistics are drawn from the options trading platform of which Deribit and Ledger X platforms prominently feature.
#bitcoin at new all-time-high (>$20k) at the end of the 2020?
Options market say 9% probability, what do you think? pic.twitter.com/1L6hlo8k5A
— skew (@skewdotcom) May 19, 2020
What are Bitcoin Options?
Options are a form of a derivatives product which gives the holder the right, not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset (in this case Bitcoin) at a predetermined price—called the strike price.
Options are complex products which are offered by select exchanges. This can be because of various regulations such as changes in local laws (for example in Japan where BitMex has suspended the participation of Japanese traders from its platform), and the sophistication of the exchange’s clients.
$10,000 and $14,000 Are Immediate Hurdles
Whether the Bitcoin price will rise to those astronomical levels, doubling as a result will depend on a lot of variables.
From price charts, clear hurdles marked by expected liquidation levels are at $10,500 (the immediate resistance line) and Feb 2020 highs, and around the $14,000 mark or June 2019 highs.
If there is an uptick across this mark, odds are Bitcoin price will easily soar to $14,000 as bulls set sight on $19,000.
Factors That Can pump Bitcoin to Over $20,000 by End Of Year
Fundamentally, the $20,000 mark can be struck. The chief catalyst being last week’s halving. Assuming past events will shape BTC prices in the future, there is enough headroom for bulls to wriggle and thrust price as predicted by the options market. Keeping tabs on the demand side of the equation, the rising number of holders with over 0.1 BTC and those angling to own 1 BTC as they join the one per centers is on the rise.
These coupled by expected economic turbulence which is forcing central banks to print trillions of dollars to prop the ailing economy means BTC is a viable refuge complementing gold, bonds, and sometimes the Yen—Japan is already in a depression and only time will tell if the currency drastically appreciates.
The US presidential elections in late November is also a factor to consider. If all these factors align, BTC may easily print new highs by the end of the year.