Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Under Threat As September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge To 86%

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP brace for a new macroeconomic challenge as the odds of a Fed rate hike at its meeting on September 16 have surged.

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Bitcoin Faces Key Test Ahead of September 15 FOMC Meeting

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 bps hike in the Fed’s target range from 350-375 to 375-400 has increased to 86.5%. The probability was around 70% before the latest inflation report. It would be the first increase in three years, and traders are also factoring in further increases.

The turnaround came after data revealed that the U.S. CPI inflation increased 3.4% in August from a year ago. This has weighed on the Bitcoin and overall crypto market decently.

However, the market outlook is not entirely in line with the economists. A Bloomberg survey of Fed policy makers showed that few economists anticipated any changes in the rate at their Sept. 15-16 meeting or on their next rate decision in December 2027. Fewer than 13 percent of the 48 who responded predicted an increase this month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technicals are still leaning towards a continuation higher, albeit there are increasing chances of a Fed rate hike. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote on X, “#Bitcoin is in the stage where you’d want to see a slight consolidation here.”

His Bitcoin price analysis chart indicates that BTC is making progress to absorb its prior drop down and push towards a significant resistance zone at $90,000-$92,000. Van de Poppe thinks more sideways action will be seen before another positive move. He wrote that “the next impulse upwards is towards $90,000 and potentially even $92,000.”

The analyst also said that bull markets tend not to experience major pullbacks. “Much rather, you’ll have short consolidations and corrections where price stagnates sideways,” he wrote.

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Ethereum Price Eyes Surge To $3,000

Ethereum is on the verge of another milestone technical hurdle as well, which is akin to Bitcoin. The Ethereum chart by analyst Ted Pillows shows that ETH price is around $2,535, and there is a current resistance at $2,547-$2,550.

Pillows noted that, “ETH is back at its $2,550 resistance level.” His chart indicates that the next significant resistance level is just over $2,800 and the next significant support levels are at about $2,215 and $1,965. If the weekly chart continues to hold above $2550, then the path is cleared for moving into the higher resistance area.

Pillows added, “A weekly close above this could push Ethereum to $3,000.”

XRP Retests Decisive $1.35 Support

According to Ali Martinez aka Ali Charts, XRP is facing a more precarious situation. The XRP price chart displays a drop of approximately 20% over a period of three weeks, dropping from $1.70 to $1.35.

About 90 million XRP were sold or redistributed by whales in the past week, Martinez said. The graph below displays the individual network traffic, revealing a 90.18% drop in the number of addresses that were active on a daily basis, from 388,492 to 38,163.

3/5 Network activity has also slowed sharply.

Daily active addresses have fallen 90.18%, from 388,492 to 38,163, signaling a significant drop in participation during the correction. pic.twitter.com/th0aZMdLo7

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 12, 2026

The XRP support chart shows that $1.35 is a particularly important price for XRP tokens, with 2.29 billion tokens already being transacted at that price. Martinez wrote that “The $1.35 support level is decisive.” If XRP can maintain the level and recover $1.38, he expects it to move back to $1.60 and possibly $1.68.

4/5 Despite whale distribution and weaker network activity, $XRP has found critical support near $1.35, where 2.29 billion tokens were previously traded.

If this level holds and XRP reclaims $1.38, a rebound toward $1.60 and potentially $1.68 could follow. pic.twitter.com/nyCKGUi0U8

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 12, 2026

The Fed’s decision is particularly significant for the crypto trader, given the significance of borrowing costs for financial conditions for risk assets, especially in a crypto environment.