Bitcoin Price Forecast as $5B IBIT Options Expiry Puts $71K Max Pain in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down by 0.77% today, August 26, to trade at $78,707 at the time of writing. The drop comes after Bitcoin was rejected at the psychological resistance of $80,000 despite rising inflows into BTC ETFs.

Glassnode data now shows that $5 billion worth of options for the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF will expire on September 18.

Ad

Ad

Bitcoin Price Faces $5B IBIT Options Expiry in September

In an X post, Glassnode noted that $3 billion in IBIT call options and $2 billion in put options will expire in September. The max pain for these options sits at $40, which is equivalent to a BTC price of $71,000.

The large number of calls compared to puts suggests that there is a bullish bias toward IBIT. However, it also exposes BTC to added volatility as the September 18 expiry nears, especially if the demand weakens and the price starts to drop.

The call-heavy positioning also comes as Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas notes that IBIT has become one of the top ten most traded ETFs as traders begin to move away from AI stocks to Bitcoin as looming US Treasury buybacks cause a drop in the value of the US dollar.

Data from SoSoValue also shows that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded $2.44 billion in inflows so far in August 2026, with this being the highest monthly inflows seen since October 2025.

These inflows also come as Bernstein forecasts that the value of Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 before another uptrend to $300,000 by 2029.

Ad

Ad

BTC’s Rally Stalls at $80K as On-Chain Data Reveals Profit-Taking

As aforementioned, Bitcoin is facing resistance at the psychological price of $80,000. BTC price moved to $80,000 on August 25 before selling pressure pulled the price down to $78,700 at the time of writing.

Data from CryptoQuant now suggests that Bitcoin price failed to move past $80,000 because of selling pressure by long-term holders after the SOPR reached 1.4 as Bitcoin price neared $80,000, with this showing that long-term holders sold Bitcoin at a higher rate than short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan notes that Bitcoin needs to close above $80,000 for the price to reach $90.000. However, if it does not move above $80,000, BTC could fall to the support at $75,000.

Bitcoin Price Risks $75K Retest Before the Next Bullish Leg

The price of Bitcoin is moving within a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. This pattern usually precedes a bearish future Bitcoin price outlook.

The wedge pattern has a height of 3.75%, suggesting that Bitcoin could drop to $75,545 if it loses support at $78,300.

Still, the wedge comes when the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is showing that the bear market has ended. This suggests that the recent drop from $80,000 to $78,000 that created the wedge pattern could be the market cooling off after a surge in buying pressure between August 20 and August 21.

Hence, if Bitcoin price drops to $75,300 as the wedge pattern suggests, it could create a new buying zone for traders, and the price could rise to test the resistance above $80,000 again.

The RSI reading of 57 also suggests that the momentum is still favoring bulls, and a close above $80,000 could precede the next move to the 161.8% Fib at $84,800.