Bitcoin Price Forecast as Japan’s 10-Year Yield Hits 30-Year High Amid Global Bond Rout

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down by 2.22% in the seven days leading up to today, September 1. The drop comes amid a surge in bond yields to record highs despite government intervention. In Japan, the 10-year bond yield has risen to the highest since 1996, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has topped 4.78% amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns.

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Japan’s 10-Year Yield Surges Amid Global Bond Selloff

The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond reached 3% on September 1, with this being the highest reading since October 1996. This rise comes ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on September 16.

The BoJ has already suggested that it will hike interest rates in response to the recent drop in the value of the yen to the lowest level in 40 years.

The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has also said that Japan is working on measures to strengthen the yen, with this likely suggesting that rate hikes are imminent.

“I have information that the market doesn’t have. And it’s my belief that the Japanese government and that the BOJ will do the things that will lead to a stronger yen,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC.

The intervention comes shortly after Bessent announced plans for a $1 trillion bond buyback to also bring US Treasury yields down after the recent rise to 4.78%.

The rising yields are bearish for Bitcoin price because investors choose to abandon risk assets for lower-risk yields. Moreover, if the BoJ and the Federal Reserve hike rates this month in response to this turmoil, Bitcoin could move lower.

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Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s Drop to $70,000 Amid Rate Hike Fears

In a recent X post, analyst Ali Charts noted that the price of Bitcoin is following the same bottoming pattern that emerged in 2023.

The analyst noted that in 2023, the price of Bitcoin tested the resistance of a falling channel three times before dropping by 20%. It was only after the fourth attempt that the price finally broke out and an uptrend began.

“If history repeats, we could see a few more failed breakout attempts, followed by a pullback toward the mid-range near $70,000, before a decisive breakout,” the analyst said.

This bearish future Bitcoin outlook comes ahead of a macro-heavy month as the Federal Reserve also heads for the FOMC meeting on September 16.

Data from top prediction markets shows that 71% of investors are expecting the Fed to hike interest rates in 2026.

A previous report by CoinGape also noted that Barclays expects the Fed to increase rates two times before 2026 ends after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.

Bitcoin Whales, ETF Investors Accumulate Despite Failed $80K Breakout

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the whale accounts holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets purchased an additional 60,000 BTC between August and August 30.

These large holders continued to purchase despite the price of Bitcoin hitting a barrier at $80,000.

Data from SoSoValue also shows that Bitcoin ETFs had their best month since September 2025 after the inflows reached $3.52 billion.

However, a CryptoQuant analyst notes that wallets with less than 1 BTC sold 14,000 coins after they used the move from $62,000 to $80,000 to book profits.

Bitcoin Price Forecast as Bears Test Support

The price of Bitcoin has dropped to test support at the 38.2% Fib of $77,811. The RSI reading of 44 also suggests that the momentum is favoring bears.

If Bitcoin closes below the 38.2% Fib, the price could move to the August 23 low of $75,545. That drop could occur if the concerns around potential rate hikes by the Japan and US central banks drive an increase in selling pressure.

Still, the AO bars that are green and positive show a bullish divergence, suggesting the downward pressure is fading.

If Bitcoin holds the support at $77,811 and buy-side pressure returns, the price could target the psychological resistance of $80,000 before the next move to $85,144.