Bitcoin Price Outlook as Barclays Forecasts Two Fed Rate Hikes After Warsh’s Hawkish Speech

Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at $78,325 today, August 31, with this being a 3.8% drop from the August 28 high of $81,478. The drop comes on the back of a hawkish speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh during the Jackson Hole Symposium. That speech has led to Barclays forecasting that the Fed will raise interest rates two times in 2026.

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Barclays Predicts Fed Rate Hikes After Jackson Hole

An earlier report by CoinGape noted that Warsh issued a warning about inflation while addressing economists and other central bankers at Jackson Hole.

Warsh noted that the CPI and the PCE data showed that US inflation remained above the Fed’s target of 2%, adding that he was also skeptical of whether the underlying trends have improved.

Barclays now says that Warsh is leaning towards supporting rate hikes in 2026, because his remarks at Jackson Hole, which pulled Bitcoin price down, suggest that he is displeased with the sluggish rate at which inflation is dropping towards the Fed’s target of 2%.

Barclays also notes that while PCE and CPI inflation have dropped considerably over the last three months, Warsh is still assessing the drop from a six-month and 12-month lens.

The expectations of two rate hikes by Barclays come two weeks before the September 16 FOMC meeting takes place. Data from top prediction markets show that 52% of investors are betting that there will be a change to interest rates after the September FOMC meeting.

The CME FedWatch Tool also shows that 61% of investors are expecting the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points in September.

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Rate Hikes, Geopolitical Tensions Could Slow Demand for BTC ETFs

Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.8 million in total inflows between August 17 and August 28.

However, the nine-day inflow streak ended on August 28 after Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole led to $201 million in outflows.

The demand could also slow again this week after geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated after the US launched an attack on Larak Island.

Iran has since responded to this attack with their own strikes in Jordan and the UAE, with the move not only pushing Bitcoin price lower, but also driving a 3% increase in the price of crude oil to $86 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin Price Forecast as Double Bottom Forms

The price of Bitcoin has created a double-bottom pattern on the four-hour chart. The price has since bounced from this second bottom at $77,382, suggesting that the price is acting as a good entry point for buyers.

If Bitcoin continues to rise above this support, it will test the first resistance at $79,400. If it closes above this resistance, it could make another gain that is equal to the height of the double bottom and reach $81,470.

The RSI reading of 51 suggests that the momentum is slightly bullish. However, this RSI line needs to create a higher high to confirm the strength of the double bottom pattern and a bullish future Bitcoin outlook.

The AO bars that are also red and negative warn that there is a slight bearish momentum, and this could hinder the move above the resistance of $79,400. If it fails to move above the resistance, BTC price could drop to $77,382.