Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of US Inflation Data and Kevin Warsh’s Speech

Bitcoin (BTC) price is headed for a volatile week ahead of the release of US inflation data on October 14 and a highly anticipated speech by the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, on October 15.

On-chain data also shows that whales are accumulating ahead of the two events, but selling pressure continues to outweigh the buying pressure.

BTC price trades at $83,679 at the time of writing, after a slight gain of 0.8% in 24 hours.

Ad

Ad

Bitcoin Price Holds Steady Ahead of CPI Release, Fed Chair Speech

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print comes out on October 14, and the crypto market is already bracing for an increase in headline inflation.

Data from MarketWatch shows that investors expect headline inflation to increase by 3.7% year-over-year in September, with this being a notable rise from the 3.4% reported in August. The market also expects core CPI that excludes food and energy to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%.

The expectations around a higher inflation reading come on the back of rising oil prices even as President Trump says the US will not conduct more strikes on Iran before mid-term elections.

If inflation rises as the market expects, it could push Bitcoin price lower because the market will begin to price in rate hikes in 2026.

Data from the CoinGape prediction markets currently shows there is a 55% chance that another rate hike occurs in 2026.

These odds could also shift after the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, gives a speech in Thailand on October 15, with markets awaiting to see whether he will mention the current state of inflation or the odds of more rate hikes taking place at the October and December FOMC meetings.

Ad

Ad

BTC Funding Rate Spikes Amid Rising Whale Demand

Data from CoinGlass also shows that the sentiment towards Bitcoin price is improving ahead of the CPI data release and Warsh’s speech. This follows an increase in BTC’s weighted funding rate from -0.0015% to 0.0043%.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that whales are accumulating BTC, with their wallet holdings surging back above 3.02 million BTC. The whale share of Bitcoin inflows to Binance has also dropped from 0.7 BTC to 0.39 BTC.

CryptoQuant analyst Sharif also notes that the seven-day moving average for the supply of Bitcoin in loss has moved below 30%, adding that the drop usually precedes a bullish long-term Bitcoin forecast because it signals the end of a sell-off.

However, the whale accumulation has yet to translate into a notable increase in the demand for Bitcoin. This is because Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has dropped to the negative region at -23,000 BTC.

BTC Price Remains Above Key Support Even as Inflation Data Looms

The one-week chart for Bitcoin price shows that the king coin remains above the support level at $81,062 despite the recent increase in selling pressure.

The MACD line is rising and remains in the positive region. The AO bars also suggest that the bullish momentum remains strong.

If demand returns, Bitcoin price needs to close above the resistance at $87,400 to confirm the return of an uptrend.

On the downside, a drop below support at $81,000 could see Bitcoin price drop to the 61.8% Fib level of $76,000.