MSTR Stock Outlook Ahead of MSCI’s Decision on Potential Index Exclusion on October 16

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price has dropped to a near one-month low as focus shifts on whether the MSCI index will pass a proposal that could see Strategy removed from the index after the November rebalancing decision.

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MSCI to Announce New Criteria Decision on October 16

In August, the MSCI index unveiled a new proposal that classifies companies that rely heavily on asset holdings as “non-operating companies.”

This proposal introduces a two-pillar screening process. The first is checking whether a company has an operating-to-total assets ratio of more than 50%.

The second includes checking five financial ratios: operating asset intensity, expense intensity, operating cash flow, fair value intensity and capital dependence.

Simulations suggest that MSTR stock may be removed from the MSCI index if this new proposal passes. As CoinGape reported, Strategy CEO Phong Le has pushed back against the proposal, accusing the MSCI of taking an anti-Bitcoin stance.

JPMorgan had also earlier warned that the removal of MSTR stock from the MSCI index could cause $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows.

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Analyst Forecasts MSTR Stock Crash Amid BTC Price Weakness

Analyst Olson on X notes that MSTR stock confirmed a sell signal on October 14 after the price dropped by 5.87% to close trading at $143.

The analyst notes that if the downtrend persists and Strategy shares close below the support at $140, the price could move to around $110 before attempting another rebound.

The bearish outlook comes amid Bitcoin’s price weakness. The king coin fell to below $81,000 after a hot CPI print raised the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in 2026 from 18% to 25% at the time of writing, per data from CoinGape prediction markets.

However, despite the decline in Bitcoin price, Saylor Tracker shows that Strategy is still sitting on a $4.5 billion unrealized profit on its Bitcoin holdings.

MSTR Stock Price Nears One Month Low

MSTR stock has dropped to its lowest price since mid-September. If the selling pressure persists, the stock could move lower to test the support at $139.

Past trends show that closing below this support at $139 has often preceded a strong downtrend for Strategy shares.

In March 2026 after MSTR stock closed below the support at $139, the price dropped to $116 a few weeks later. A similar crash also occurred in June and September 2026.

The RSI supports this bearish thesis, with the creation of a lower low suggesting that the bearish momentum is gaining strength.

However, if MSTR stock defends the support at $139 and begins a rebound, it will have to clear the sell wall between $158 and $165 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.