SpaceX Stock Forecast as Another 319M Shares Unlock Weighs on Price

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price is down by 4.05% today, August 20, to trade at $133 at the time of writing. This drop comes as traders brace for a second batch of millions of shares that will become available for trading for the first time since the June 12 IPO.

The company is also facing headwinds after a Chinese company landed a reusable rocket booster, narrowing the competitive edge that SpaceX has been riding on.

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SpaceX Unlocks an Additional 319M Shares

SpaceX early-stage investors and employees will get a chance to trade 319 million shares for the first time today. This share unlock is happening barely two weeks after 911M SPCX shares were also unlocked on August 6.

This will be the second unlock for these shares since the company went public on June 12. However, it will not be the final unlock considering that three more unlocks will occur in September and two others in October before the company releases its Q3 earnings in November.

In total, more than 1.5 million SpaceX shares will flood the market before the company’s third-quarter earnings, including today’s batch.

However, the first share unlock of 911.5 million SPCX stock did not cause a surge in selling pressure like it was expected to. Instead, SPCX stock price surged after the company’s Q2 2026 earnings, which revealed a 92% year-over-year revenue increase, overshadowing the bearish outlook.

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SPCX Stock Forecast: Technical Analysis

SPCX stock appears to be creating a bear flag on the three-hour chart as the uptrend from $107 on August 6 to $149 on August 17 cools down.

A bear flag usually suggests that the uptrend is cooling off before the next leg starts. However, a move below the lower trendline of the flag’s descending channel could invalidate the bullish pattern, and SpaceX stock could drop to the psychological support at $130.

However, if buyers do come back and support the uptrend shown by this bull flag SPCX stock price could reclaim its June 12 opening price of $150. A close above $150 will support a bullish long-term outlook.

One of the factors that could increase buying pressure for the stock is the company’s focus on AI, after the company completed a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor AI.

Still, the stock is facing bearish headwinds after a Chinese startup company LandSpace landed its Zhuque-3 rocket, marking the first time that a Chinese company has recovered a booster on land.

This milestone has narrowed the competitive edge around SpaceX, considering that the shares usually surge during rocket launches and on the optimism that the company could dominate the space industry.