COIN and CRCL Stock Outlook Ahead of November Midterm Elections – Crash or Rally?

The US midterm elections are drawing near, and Wall Street analysts are already assessing the impact that this political event will have on US stocks such as Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Circle (NYSE: CRCL).

COIN stock is down by 7% month-to-date, while CRCL is up slightly by 0.49%. With less than three weeks left until the election, will the two crypto stocks surge or edge lower?

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JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Weigh on Impact of Midterms on US Stocks

In a recent report, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs noted that the market’s attention is on the impact that the November elections will have on fiscal policy, and the uncertainty may heighten market volatility ahead of the vote.

The bank notes that a divided government could have a limited effect on the fiscal policy. However, if the Republicans retain control, it could have a bigger effect on interest rates and fiscal policies.

Post the election outcome, JPMorgan Strategist Jordan Jackson opines that other macro factors could include how stock prices like those of COIN and CRCL will perform.

“Political calendars do not drive markets on their own, and investors should focus on today’s backdrop, which in our view supports a constructive outlook on risk assets,” the analyst said.

He notes that stocks have not only performed well post previous elections, but they currently also have other bullish factors like strong earnings, GDP growth, and a less hawkish Fed that could boost the outlook.

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Key Levels to Watch in Coin Stock Price Ahead of Midterms

COIN stock price dropped by 5.76% on October 16, after geopolitical tensions escalated, to close trading at $173. The stock remains above the crucial support at $167 on the daily timeframe.

Losing this support because of the volatility that usually engulfs stocks ahead of elections could trigger a downtrend towards $154.

Coinbase shares need to confirm a close above the 200-day EMA to confirm the return of a bullish trend. Such a move could push COIN stock price to $199.

However, the momentum remains weak ahead of the November elections because of the RSI reading of 45. Unless the RSI shifts above 50 ahead of the election, COIN stock price may continue to struggle under bearish pressure.

CRCL Stock Price as Crucial Resistance Holds

The one-week chart for CRCL stock price shows that the shares, as testing the resistance at the upper trendline of a falling triangle pattern even as political uncertainty looms.

If CRCL can close above the trendline’s resistance at $87 and also moves above the psychological level of $90, it could kickstart an uptrend ahead of the elections.

However, rejection at $87 again could push CRCL stock to support at the PoC line at $82. Breaking this support could push Circle shares lower to below $80.

The CMF line that remains negative warns that the selling pressure is outpacing buying pressure, which may fuel the downward trend.