Ethereum Price Forecast as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop on Cooling US Inflation

Ethereum (ETH) price briefly surged above $2,700 on September 30 before dropping to trade at $2,679 at the time of writing. That initial gain occurred after the US PCE inflation came in lower than expected.

The PCE inflation data has now reduced the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in prediction markets and the CME FedWatch Tool.

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Ethereum Price Fails to Gain Despite Bullish Inflation Data

The crypto market has erased most of the gains made after the US PCE inflation for August 2026 came in at 3.4%, with this being lower than the expected 3.7% as earlier reported by CoinGape.

While the PCE inflation print remains above the Fed’s target of 2%, the latest data shows that US inflation is cooling and could reduce the need for the Fed to hike interest rates further.

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points during the October 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have dropped to 34%.

CoinGape prediction markets also show that the Fed rate hike odds have fallen from 67% to 34%.

This drop is usually bullish for risk assets such as Ethereum. If markets begin to price in the possibility of the Federal Reserve not hiking interest rates at the October FOMC meeting, it could drive gains for Ethereum price.

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ETH ETF Outflows Return

Data from SoSoValue shows that there were $2.81 million in outflows from Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on September 29.

This marks the first time that Ethereum ETFs have posted outflows since September 18, with the products also ending their seven-day inflow streak.

Ethereum was the only crypto ETF that recorded outflows on September 29, suggesting that demand from institutional investors is becoming weak.

Still, Ethereum ETFs have posted $892 million in inflows in September 2026, with this marking the third straight month of inflows for the ETFs.

Ethereum Price Remains Above Key EMA as Bulls Test Resistance

Ethereum price is now sitting above the support at the 200-day EMA of $2,462. When the price is above this EMA, it suggests that the long-term Ethereum price outlook is bullish.

Still, ETH price is facing resistance at $2,816. If the largest altcoin can close above this resistance, it could begin another uptrend towards the psychological resistance at $3,000.

The AO bars that are green and growing in length suggest that the momentum is favoring bulls, and this could support the upward move.

However, if macro pressures weigh on risk assets and cause a sell-off across risk assets, Ethereum price could drop to test the support at $2,500.