MSTR Stock Forecast: Analyst Eyes Rally to $225 as Strategy’s Bitcoin Premium Hits 3-Month High

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price closed at $168 on September 21, marking its highest closing price since May 15.

MSTR stock gains come on the back of a recovery across the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touching $87,000 before dropping to $85,000 at the time of writing.

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Strategy’s mNAV Jumps to 3-Month High

Strategy’s mNAV reading has risen to 1.17x, with this being the highest mNAV reading seen since June 22.

The mNAV compares the value of Strategy as a company with the value of the Bitcoin that it holds.

When the mNAV reading is at 1.17x, it shows that an investor purchasing MSTR stock is paying $1.17 for every $1 of BTC that Strategy holds.

The rising mNAV reading comes after Strategy added $32 billion to its market cap within three months. These gains follow the company’s restructuring, where it prioritized pausing Bitcoin buys and repurchasing the STRC preferred stock.

STRC stock is now 1.3% below its par value of $100, and Strategy has also resumed Bitcoin purchases, as earlier reported by CoinGape.

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Analyst Sets $225 Target for MSTR Stock as BTC Profits Surge

Analyst Donald Dean on X notes that MSTR stock price is currently testing the resistance at the 23.6% Fib of $170.

Dean notes that if the stock can move above this obstacle like it did with the obstacle at $150, it could reach the 38.2% Fib of $225.

The analyst’s bullish outlook comes as Strategy reaches an unrealized profit of $8.59 billion on the 846,000 BTC that it holds. Strategy’s Bitcoin stash is also at 13% above the average cost basis of $75,416.

If Bitcoin price continues with the uptrend as geopolitical tensions ease, Strategy’s profits could continue to balloon, supporting more gains for MSTR stock price.

MSTR Stock Tests 200W EMA Resistance

The one-week chart shows that MSTR stock has moved to the resistance at the 200-week EMA of $167. Strategy shares have not closed above this resistance since May 2026.

If MSTR makes a strong move above $167 and then confirms this price to be support, the uptrend could move to the next resistance at $183. This obstacle could then pave the way for a move towards the psychological resistance of $200.

However, MSTR stock has faced resistance at the 200-week EMA multiple times since December 2025. If it does not close above this price, the stock might drop to retest the support at the 20-week EMA of $130.

Still, the RSI reading of 59 suggests that the momentum is favoring bulls. The RSI line is also creating a higher high to suggest that bulls are tightening their grip.

If the RSI keeps climbing and Bitcoin extends its gains towards $90,000, MSTR stock price might move towards $200 in Q4 2026.