Clarity Act Update: Complete Schedule, Final Vote Timeline & Expected Impact on Crypto

The road for the Clarity Act to become law just got a lot bumpier. The July 4 signing date the White House once floated has quietly slipped off the table. Instead, lawmakers are now working towards a post-recess push. Senator Bill Hagerty says the more realistic date for a floor vote will be weeks after Congress returns on July 13.

The bill still needs 60 votes to clear the Senate. Right now, Republicans control 53 seats, so they need at least seven Democrats to cross over. So far, only Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego have backed the bill in committee, but both were careful to say that doesn’t guarantee a yes on the floor.

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Clarity Act: What’s Actually Holding Up the Vote?

Ethics is the bigger problem here. The newest Trump’s financial disclosure showed that, in 2025, he earned more than $1 billion in crypto, and Democrats received fresh ammunition. Senator Warren said:

The crypto legislation heading to the Senate floor must stop the President and his family from continuing to profit off crypto.

Adam Schiff, who had been in the room for the ethics talks, called the windfall “the cost of corruption”. Until Democrats change their language to one that fits them, their votes aren’t moving.

In the first year of his presidency, Trump made more money than in the rest of his life combined.

A total of $2.2 billion from the presidency.

Meanwhile, most Americans worked hard to just break even.

This is the cost of corruption.https://t.co/isHrlo9Dsl

— Senator Adam Schiff (@SenAdamSchiff) July 1, 2026

Another issue is with law enforcement. Groups, including the National Sheriffs’ Association and the International Association of Chiefs of Police, have raised concerns that the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, part of the bill, could open gaps that criminals exploit.

The administration officials met with some of these groups this week, but the meeting mostly avoided the actual disputes and instead, focused on other provisions that could help police fight on-chain crime. The main goal is to move some of these groups from the active opposition to neutral parties, so Democrats lose one more excuse to hold back.

The Odds Are Shifting

Galaxy Research isn’t as confident as it was. Passage odds have dropped to 60%, down from 75% a few weeks ago. The Senate calendar is packed with other fights, and there’s less time left before the August recess than anyone would like.

Prediction markets have moved even further, with some now placing the odds at just 48-50%. If the Senate misses the recess window, there’s a likelihood for the fight to drag into the fall, right as the midterm political campaigns take centre stage.

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Final Thoughts: Institutions Are Still Buying the Clarity Act Story

None of what is happening with the Clarity Act is scaring off institutional interest. This week, at an event hosted by Zero at the NYSE, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and Citi executives talked about stablecoins and tokenization, even though Bitcoin price just closed the second quarter in decline.

William Su, Head of Digital Assets Research at BlackRock, described institutional appetite as a “primordial goop” building toward something bigger. If the Senate passes the bill before recess, Citi and Standard Chartered both think Bitcoin price could hit six figures.