What to Expect From MSTR Stock Price After Strategy’s Q3 Earnings Release

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price was down in after-hours trading despite the company beating analyst estimates with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $44.75. Operating income and net income also soared by triple-digit percentage gains year-over-year (YoY).

The slight after-hours drop comes after a “red” day for the stock as it fell by 2.44% to close trading at $141 on October 29.

Post-earnings, Bitcoin (BTC) price performance and macro factors like the upcoming MSCI rebalancing, US midterm elections, and geopolitical risks will impact Strategy share price movements.

Strategy Beats Q3 EPS Estimates Amid Record Operating Income

Strategy’s Q3 2026 earnings revealed a 431% YoY rise in the EPS to $44.75, beating the analyst estimates of $21.50. The Q3 EPS was also a huge leap from the EPS loss of $24.45 reported in Q2 2025.

Revenue came in at $125.4 million, slightly missing the analyst estimates of $127 million. The operating income came in at $20.91 billion, a 438% YoY jump, while the net income jumped by 600% YoY to $19.53 billion.

The surge in operating income follows a $20.9 billion paper gain on Bitcoin price, which climbed from $58K at the end of June to over $83K by the end of September.

Data from Strategy Tracker shows an unrealized profit of $3.64 billion on the company’s stash of 848,117 BTC.

Bitcoin Price Weakness Could Push MSTR Stock Lower

As Bitcoin price struggles near $80,000 analysts are warning of a potential drop in MSTR stock price post-earnings even as the company approves a daily dividend payout proposal that could help generate more capital to fund BTC purchases.

Analyst Darkfost warns that even if Strategy is above its Bitcoin cost basis, the purchases made since 2025 remain underwater.

“Taking all purchases since 2025 together with this summer’s sales at the lows, the cost basis is still above the current price, at an estimated $90 600,” the analyst said.

Another analyst on X adds that MSTR stock price will likely be in trouble if the price of Bitcoin falls below $74,000.

At press time, BTC price traded at $80,014 with an intraday loss of 0.78%. A recent CoinGape Bitcoin price analysis noted that analysts are warning of a steeper crash if the king coin records a daily close below $79,000. Such a drop will be bearish for MSTR stock price after today’s earnings release.

MSCI Rebalancing, Elections and Geopolitical Risks Will Weigh on Shares Post Earnings

Even with a surge in revenue and EPS, Strategy shares are facing a volatile week ahead with the upcoming midterm elections on November 3. During the previous midterm election in 2022, MSTR stock price dropped by 30% to close the month at $19, down from the opening price of $27.

Eight days after the election day, MSCI will be rebalancing its index and speculation is rife of a potential MSTR stock exclusion after a recent proposal passed, targeting digital asset treasury companies.

JPMorgan had warned the exclusion could cause $2.8 billion in selling pressure, and if this occurs, MSTR stock price will most likely edge lower.

Lastly, President Trump has warned that US strikes on Iran will resume after midterm elections, which is another factor that could weigh on MSTR stock price even if the earnings results today surpass expectations.

MSTR Stock Price Eyes Key Resistance Level Amid Earnings Release

MSTR stock price could move to the resistance at the 61.85 Fib of $147 after the histroric operating income and the EPS beat.

A close above the 61.8% Fib could push MSTR stock to the next obstacle at 200-day EMA at $152, whose crossover could determine whether the shares can reach $170.

However, an earnings miss might push MSTR stock price lower to the 100-day EMA of $136. Breaking this support could trigger a steep downtrend, especially with the upcoming MSCI rebalancing and mid-term elections.

The RSI on the daily chart is at 46, which suggests that the momentum is favoring bears, and this supports a bearish outlook for MSTR stock price.

As for the long-term outlook post the Q3 earnings release, the weekly chart places crucial support at $137, where closing below this price could accelerate the downtrend.

The weekly chart also shows a CMF reading of -0.09, which further supports that the selling pressure remains high as Strategy releases its Q3 earnings results.

The widening Bollinger band also suggest that the volatility of the shares is rising as the stock cools off following the recent gains from $82 to $171.