XRP Prediction: What Will Have the Biggest Impact on Price, CLARITY Act or U.S. Spot XRP ETF?

XRP price traded near $1.04 in late June 2026, slipping closer to the crucial $1 support zone. The token is still way below the July 2025 cycle high of $3.66. XRP was down almost 5% in the week, amidst the wider crypto sentiment. 

Bitcoin price crashed to under $60,000, and Ethereum price hovered below $1,600. There are two potential catalysts that now have market attention. Could the CLARITY Act or a U.S. spot XRP ETF shape the next major price move?

How the CLARITY Act Could Impact XRP Price

The CLARITY Act could boost XRP price, but the impact might be confidence, not demand. The bill proposes more distinct SEC and CFTC functions, registration options, and disclosure regulations to crypto companies. 

That would be significant to XRP, which has been bearing the weight of regulation since Ripple court battle. A more defined U.S. framework can help mitigate that discount, and investor sentiment. 

Senate Republicans push to pass the CLARITY Act in July

The crypto market-structure bill has a July deadline now. Senate Republican leaders, Banking chair Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) and Majority Leader John Thune (@LeaderJohnThune), said Monday they want to pass the CLARITY… pic.twitter.com/MKhWj6I86q

— BSCN (@BSCNews) June 29, 2026

The proposal further reinforces the case of the spot XRP ETF by relieving issuers and custodians of concerns. 

However, timing remains uncertain as the Senate stays in recess until July 13. Senator Tim Scott still hopes to get a July vote, but markets are still skeptical about getting it passed and negotiations persist with industry officials staff.

Spot XRP ETFs See $15.34 Million Inflows as Demand Builds

According to Soso value data, US XRP spot ETFs recorded $15.34 million in daily net inflows on June 29. The most recent update indicated the cumulative net inflows of 1.48 billion, and the value of total traded was 12.50 million.  

Bitwise was the leader in demand, attracting $11.94 million and 11.18 million XRP over the course of the session. Canary was next with inflows of 3.40 million and 3.19 million XRP.

Bitwise also had the highest net assets of 312.30 million compared to Canary which had 243.90 million. 

Franklin reported no daily inflow, but its cumulative net inflow stayed strong at $410.35 million. The update also included no new daily inflows posted by 21Shares and Grayscale.

XRP Price Prediction: Will CLARITY Act or Spot ETF Trigger $1.20?

Ripple price traded at around $1.0437 on the four-hour chart. The token was still weak due to the failure to reclaim the resistance area of $1.10. 

XRP price is now holding above the key $1.00 support level. The break below this zone may signify the underlying downward pressure. 

The second bearish level would be around $0.95 in case selling intensifies. Nevertheless, consumers might stand up for $1.00, which is still a big psychological price point.

The MACD shows early recovery signs, with the histogram slightly positive. Still, both MACD lines remain below the zero line. The RSI is at 43.57 with a weak momentum. 

On the upside, XRP price must first recover above $1.10. That would open up a push to $1.15. A more aggressive break out of above $1.15 can send the price to $1.20. 

In conclusion, the future direction of the XRP price will be determined by the continued inflows of ETFs and the increase in regulatory clarity. Demand will bring confidence back, and weak feeling will make traders wary in the short run.