Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of October 7 Fed Minutes

Bitcoin (BTC) is up today, October 5, to trade at $86,160 at the time of writing. These gains have pushed the total crypto market cap to $2.93 trillion.

BTC is now headed for a volatile week ahead of the release of minutes for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 7 that could hike or trim the odds of the Fed hiking rates this month.

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Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Plunge to 17% Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The Federal Reserve held its monetary policy decision meeting on September 16. During that meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%.

Shortly after that meeting, the odds of the Fed hiking rates again at the October 28 meeting rose to above 80% after the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, said that inflation was “too high.”

However, the release of US PCE inflation last week, which is the data that the Fed relies on to make monetary policy decisions, revealed a noticeable drop in consumer prices, with the report also causing a surge in Bitcoin Price.

Since the release of the report, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in October have dropped to 17% on CoinGape prediction markets.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the minutes from the September meeting to assess whether Fed officials are leaning hawkish or dovish and whether they are of the opinion that more rate hikes are needed.

An earlier report by CoinGape revealed that Fed governor Phillip Jefferson suggested that the Federal Reserve might hold rates steady during the October meeting.

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Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Surge as Whales Hold Steady

Data from CryptoQuant shows that there were 6,036 BTC outflows from exchanges between September 28 and October 4.

On October 4 alone, 1,071 BTC left exchanges, suggesting an unwillingness by most traders to sell.

Another on-chain metric on whale activity shows that whales are also not moving their Bitcoin to exchanges despite BTC price surging to $86,000.

Per one CryptoQuant analyst, the transfers by whales holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have remained “fairly flat.” Meanwhile, the accounts holding between 10 and 100 BTC have increased their coin transfers to exchanges.

While the lack of whale outflows does not suggest that these large addresses are buying, data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs completed three straight weeks of inflows. This data suggests that institutional demand for BTC ETFs remains high.

Bitcoin Prediction as Price Enters a Sell Wall

The four-hour chart for Bitcoin price shows that BTC has entered a sell wall at $86,000. This is the price at which short-term holders are selling Bitcoin to take profits.

If Bitcoin price clears this sell wall, it could move to the next target at $87,395. Another bullish leg could push the price to the 123.6% Fib of $89,111.

The four-hour chart also shows that Bitcoin price remains within a rising parallel channel, and it has even closed above the resistance at the midline. This setup supports a bullish long-term Bitcoin outlook.

However, if selling pressure returns as Bitcoin enters the $86,000 range, BTC may retest support at the channel’s midline before dropping to the 61.8% Fib of $84,600.