‘CLARITY Act Is Dead’: Former Federal Prosecutor Exposes Behind-the-Scenes Congress Talks

The CLARITY Act has taken another hit ahead of the Sept. Senate action on the Bill. Having met with opposition from former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti in Washington, the former prosecutor says he’s convinced the legislation has little chance of moving forward, causing the number of cloture votes to jump to 15.

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Mariotti Says Capitol Hill Has Moved On From CLARITY Act

He met with members of Congress and congressional staff throughout the week, Mariotti revealed. He posted later his experiences from these conversations on X.

He said, “CLARITY is dead. Congress is entering a post-CLARITY era.”

The former federal prosecutor said that the attitude was prevalent in those who were in the business of the legislative process. He also linked the obstacles encountered by the bill to the Ninth Circuit case involving prediction markets like Kalshi, and New Jersey’s attempt to appeal the case to the U.S. Supreme Court.

His remarks follow those of Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan two weeks ago that called the legislation “walking dead.” As a result, there’s increasing doubt over the future of the CLARITY Act, and its chances of passing on prediction markets are declining.

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Lummis Warns Time Is Running Out

Sen. Cynthia Lummis again called on the bills to be brought up for consideration before the end of this Congress. She reiterated that otherwise comprehensive legislation for the crypto market might not be in place until 2030.

She stated, “If the Clarity Act doesn’t pass this Congress, the next real opportunity to bring market structure legislation back up is 2030. That’s years of jobs, investment, and tax revenue we can avoid squandering if we finish this now.”

Congress is dealing with a short legislative session. The House is expected to depart Washington on Sept. 17. That’s just two days before the Senate’s cloture vote.

If the Senate adopts an amended version, then House members will have a limited amount of time to consider the changes before they leave the House.

There is also a waning in confidence in prediction markets. The odds of the CLARITY Act to passing in 2026 are currently 13% to 18% on Polymarket. It suggests a massive drop from previous probability as the contract was over 80% above earlier this year. Kalshi has also given low odds to the Senate to achieve the needed threshold.

The September 15 CLARITY Act vote is a cloture motion. It takes 60 votes to move on to debate. There are 50 Republicans in the Senate. At least seven Democrats will need to join them in order for the Senate to begin considering the bill.

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