99% Approval Odds? How Close Are We to Spot Solana ETF Launch in US?

The spot Solana ETF is yet to enter the U.S. market, but there is high investor demand. With the SEC’s every move being closely monitored and a significant number of applications under review, the odds are moving in the direction of approval, at least on Polymarket. Notably, the launch of the staking-enabled SOL ETF and recent updates are fueling the investors’ hype further, especially as the SEC acknowledged the Invesco Galaxy filing. Will the SEC approve? Let’s discuss.

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Spot Solana ETF Approval Odds Stand at 99%

Polymarket and other similar sites clearly showcase investors betting on the high approval odds of the Spot Solana ETF in 2025. The 99% breakthrough for this anticipation came after the launch of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking (SSK) exchange-traded fund, which went live earlier in July. 

CoinGape experts reported that the SSK ETF went live on July 2 and gained more than $20 million in trading volume on the first day alone. As a result, investors’ prediction for the proper spot one’s launch skyrocketed, hitting 99% plus.

Notably, the odds have been persistent ever since then, and investors show high anticipation of the SOL ETF launch this year. Besides, the high Ethereum ETF inflows and the digital asset’s performance these days are increasing the demand for approval.

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SEC Acknowledges Invesco Galaxy Spot Solana ETF, Approval Next?

Adding to the list of spot Solana ETF filings, Invesco and Galaxy Digital also jointly filed for one in June 2025. After nearly two months, the SEC has finally acknowledged the filing, which means that the review process for this will begin now, and the SEC will make a decision soon.

Interestingly, ETF experts like James Seyffart, Eric Balchunas, and others have presented a potential approval of these SOL ETFs as early as October 2025. However, the uncertainty still exists as the SEC has delayed their decision on most of the filings.

The SEC’s “Listing Standards” for crypto ETPs is out via new exchange filing. BOTTOM LINE: Any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase’s derivatives exchange would be approved (below is list). It’s about a dozen of the usual suspects, the same ones we had at 85% or… https://t.co/QlzZnta7Yv pic.twitter.com/CmBr8XxAcM

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025

In the list, there are Fidelity, VenECK, Bitwise, and a bunch of others, including Grayscale, which has applied to change its GSOL Solana Trust into an ETF. 

Notably, no announcement on the potential approval date by the SEC has been made up to now. However, their request for issuers to update their S-1 filing indicates that they are seriously analyzing these filings.

Considering these events and high odds, the ETFs could get approval soon.